#夏日创作营 Many people think BTC is up—has the altcoin bull market arrived?

But BTC’s market-cap share is still close to 59%. Nearly three-fifths of the funds remain concentrated in Bitcoin.

And the hallmark of an altcoin rally is: the BTC share starts to decline continuously.

Because funds follow a typical rotation sequence:

ETF and institutional funds buy BTC first;

After BTC rises, funds start flowing into ETH;

Once ETH stabilizes, the flow moves to SOL and other major L1s;

Only then do small- and mid-cap altcoins become fully active.

But now, BTC’s share isn’t showing an obvious decline—on the contrary, it’s still holding at a high level in a choppy range.

This suggests that this upswing is driven more by institutional funds and risk-hedging capital.

Although the ETF has had net inflows for several consecutive days, a large amount of capital is still staying in BTC and hasn’t spread broadly across the market.

This also explains why BTC keeps rebounding,

but most altcoins still don’t have strong “make money” effects.

When judging whether it’s an alt season, don’t just watch the BTC price.

You should observe three signals instead:

1. BTC’s market-cap share begins to fall continuously;
2. ETH/BTC keeps strengthening;
3. Trading volume on major public chains and altcoins noticeably expands.

Only when funds truly start moving from BTC to the broader market can an altcoin rally really open up.