July 23 trading plan:

Yesterday, ETH continued to consolidate in a high range, with no directional choice.

On the fundamentals side, the US-Iran conflict is still ongoing. The market has not reacted, and it is currently unclear whether the outcome will be continued negotiations or an escalation of the war’s scale. Investors only care about the final result. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting on July 28–29 local time. As the meeting approaches, the swaps market shows that traders estimate the probability of the central bank raising rates by 25 basis points in July at about 30%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 70%. Ahead of the interest rate decision, the market is also staying on the sidelines.

On the technical side, the 4-hour upward ranging trend remains unchanged; the 1-hour chart is stuck in high-level sideways consolidation, with the main trading range at 1954–1910.

In terms of trading, swing and trend traders will wait for a breakout from the range: go long if it breaks above 1954, with a stop-loss at 1925, targeting 1985, 2020, and 2150; go short if it breaks below 1910, with a stop-loss at 1928, targeting 1880, 1849, and 1814. For short-term traders, you can take light positions to sell high and buy low within the range; once it breaks out, follow the trend accordingly.