l#夏日创作营 Bitcoin price action on 7.22 has been eventful—hard to go far!

In the crypto market:
1. According to monitoring, derivatives whales 「set 10 big targets first」, closing positions for profit in the early hours. The actual long position held is 4,006.47 BTC, with long entry price at $64,614.7, and profit-taking close at $66,160.47.
2. On July 22, according to monitoring, a certain whale exited Ethereum after holding it for five months, selling 1,862.3 ETH at an average price of $1,923; its entry average price was $2,685.
3. On July 22, according to monitoring, BlackRock increased its holdings again. It withdrew 1,789.65 BTC from CoinbPrime at an average price of 66,493, worth approximately $119 million.
In the market:
1. For the week ending July 4, in the U.S., ADP employment change was +16.5 thousand, with the prior value at +19.75 thousand.
2. On July 22, the U.S. Trade Representative hinted in an interview with the media on the 21st that the U.S. federal government will soon issue new tariff policies to replace the soon-to-expire 10% global import tariff.
3. On July 22, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in local time on July 21 that after the U.S. announced tariffs, he had a phone call with U.S. President Trump. Carney also said that if (the new tariffs) take effect, Canada will consider all response options.
4. On July 21, U.S. President Trump told the media that the U.S. will 「very soon」 launch an attack on Iran’s underground facility “Gedsha” located south of Natanz, and the strike force will be “very fierce.”
5. On July 22, U.S. Central Command: starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time tonight, it will strike military targets within Iran; this is the 11th consecutive night to carry out such actions.
6. On the early morning of July 22, if the U.S. attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities, U.S. interests in the Middle East will face retaliation.
7. On July 22, U.S. stocks opened higher and rallied; all three major indices closed up. Nasdaq rose 1.29%, the S&P 500 rose 0.89%, and the Dow rose 0.74%.
Overall, macro markets’ oil prices are rising due to conflicts and shipping threats. Geopolitical conflicts are escalating one after another, increasing worries about inflation, pushing the probability of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve up to 68%. In this context, it’s hard to say Bitcoin will restart a bull market. Buying activity stays light and cautious to guard against unexpected trend reversals. Near the resistance level, you can also short!
On the daily timeframe: the current BTC price has already shaken off the short-term downward trend and entered a possible range-bound consolidation phase. After breaking a key trend line, buy-side interest has clearly strengthened, but there are still multiple resistances overhead, including prior swing highs and macro policy uncertainty. The monthly timeframe’s high is approaching the MA5 line (68,300). In the short term, if the Middle East conflict escalates again or other unexpected events occur, the price may face profit-taking pressure. Overall, buying should not chase too aggressively. Near resistance levels, a short-selling setup is preferable!
For upside: initial resistance to watch is around the July 6 high of 67,253. Further resistance to watch is around 68,300.
For downside: initial support to watch is around the 30-day moving average of 62,762. Further support to watch is around $60k even $BTC ‌