Grayscale: If the Fed does not raise rates, “Bitcoin has already bottomed out,” and the traditional four-year halving cycle may already be broken

Is Bitcoin’s pricing logic changing? Grayscale research chief Zach Pandl’s latest take posted on X says Bitcoin should be viewed as a “macro asset.” He emphasized that if the Federal Reserve (Fed) decides not to raise rates, Bitcoin may have already bottomed—meaning the traditional 4-year halving cycle framework investors are familiar with might no longer be the only price guide.
(Background: Bloomberg analyst: Bitcoin ETF pulled in $750 million net in a single week, and the OG stopped—watch for a rebound)
(Extra context: Has Bitcoin bottomed? Trader KillaXBT: Completed a 5-wave bear-market correction, but “this indicator” signaled 100 days early)

With the global macroeconomic environment undergoing drastic changes, Bitcoin (BTC)’s pricing model appears to be shifting paradigmatically. On July 22, 2026 (Taipei time), Grayscale’s research chief and former Goldman Sachs economist Zach Pandl posted his latest view on X, directly stating that Bitcoin’s price action will depend heavily on expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy, rather than simply following past historical cycles.

Bitcoin is a macro asset and it trades with macro variables (eg growth and policy expectations)

If the Fed doesn't hike $BTC may have already bottomed, even if the 4yr cycle framework implies longer bear market

Quick blog post: https://t.co/9tnWphYwJc pic.twitter.com/6928J1fCAa

— Zach Pandl (@LowBeta) July 22, 2026

Breaks the 4-year cycle myth: Fed policy decisions define the bottom

In the post, Pandl explicitly said, “Bitcoin is a macro asset; it will move along with macro variables (such as economic growth and policy expectations).” He boldly suggested that if the Fed decides next to not continue rate hikes, Bitcoin may have already completed this round’s bottom-testing.

This view directly challenges many traditional theories that many crypto investors strongly believe. Over the past decade-plus, the market has widely assumed that Bitcoin’s price action strictly follows a “halving cycle” every four years. Looking at that framework alone, the current market situation seems to imply that investors still need to endure a longer period of bear-market cleansing; however, Pandl believes the forces of the macroeconomy are strong enough to override this cycle inertia.

Changes in capital structure: keeping a close watch on macro data becomes the norm

To further support his argument, Pandl attached a link in the post to Grayscale’s latest analysis article, “Bitcoin: Four-Year Cycle or Macro Asset?” and shared charts analyzing the correlation between Bitcoin and macro factors.

After the viewpoint was published, it quickly sparked lively discussion in the community. Many investors and analysts exchanged views in depth on the Fed’s future direction, the linked effect with Ethereum (ETH), and the applicability of other macroeconomic models. This also underscores a key reality: as more and more Wall Street institutional capital enters, the link between the cryptocurrency market and the global macroeconomy has become inseparable. In today’s macro environment full of uncertainty, investors may no longer be able to rely solely on historical patterns—closely tracking monetary policy moves may be the most important key to judging Bitcoin’s next direction.