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#夏日创作营 Bitcoin price action on July 22 is full of trouble—it’s hard to go far!
In the crypto market:
1. According to monitoring, the contract whale “set 10 major targets” and closed positions for profit early in the morning. Its actual long position is 4,006.47 BTC, with the long entry price at $64,614.7 and the take-profit closing at $66,160.47.
2. On July 22, according to monitoring, after holding Ethereum for five months, a certain whale fully exited, selling 1,862.3 ETH at an average price of $1,923. Its entry average price was $2,685.
3. On July 22, according to monitoring, BlackRock added again. It withdrew 1,789.65 BTC from CoinbPrime, with an average price of $66,493, worth about $119 million.
In the market:
1. For the week of July 4, the U.S. ADP employment change was 16.5 thousand people, with the prior value at 19.75 thousand.
2. On July 22, during a media interview, the U.S. Trade Representative hinted that the U.S. federal government will soon issue new tariff policies to replace the soon-expiring 10% global import tariffs.
3. On July 22, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, speaking on July 21 local time, said that after the U.S. announced tariffs, he had a phone call with U.S. President Trump. Carney also said that if (the new tariffs) take effect, Canada will consider all response options.
4. On July 21, U.S. President Trump told the media that the U.S. will “soon” launch strikes on Iran’s “Gad Mountains” underground facility located south of Natanz, and the strike force will be “very intense.”
5. On July 22, U.S. Central Command: it will begin strikes on military targets inside Iran at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time tonight, which is the 11th consecutive night of such actions.
6. On July 22, early in the morning local time, if the U.S. attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities, U.S. interests in the Middle East will all face retaliation.
7. On July 22, U.S. stocks opened higher and closed strong, with all three major indices rising together. Nasdaq rose 1.29%, S&P 500 rose 0.89%, and Dow rose 0.74%.
Overall, the macro market’s oil prices are rising due to conflicts and shipping threats. Geopolitical tensions are unfolding one after another, worsening inflation concerns, and pushing the probability of the Fed rate hike in September to 68%. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin can hardly be said to have restarted a bull market—buying actions remain light and cautious, and it’s also possible to short near resistance levels as prevention against unexpected trend reversals!
Daily timeframe: The current price has already shaken off the short-term downward trend and entered a potential range-bound consolidation phase. After breaking a key trend line, buying interest has increased significantly, but price still faces multiple resistances overhead, including the previous highs and uncertainty in macro policy. The monthly timeframe peak is already approaching the MA5 line (68,300). In the short term, if the Middle East conflict escalates again or other unexpected events occur, the price may face pressure to take profits and sell. Overall, buying actions should not chase too aggressively—near resistance levels, consider shorting operations!
Upside: First resistance to watch is around the July 6 high of 67,253. Further resistance to watch is around 68,300.
Downside: First support to watch is around the 30-day moving average at 62,762. Further support to watch is around the 60k level $BTC
In the crypto market:
1. According to monitoring, derivatives whales 「set 10 big targets first」, closing positions for profit in the early hours. The actual long position held is 4,006.47 BTC, with long entry price at $64,614.7, and profit-taking close at $66,160.47.
2. On July 22, according to monitoring, a certain whale exited Ethereum after holding it for five months, selling 1,862.3 ETH at an average price of $1,923; its entry average price was $2,685.
3. On July 22, according to monitoring, BlackRock increased its holdings again. It withdrew 1,789.65 BTC from CoinbPrime at an average price of 66,493, worth approximately $119 million.
In the market:
1. For the week ending July 4, in the U.S., ADP employment change was +16.5 thousand, with the prior value at +19.75 thousand.
2. On July 22, the U.S. Trade Representative hinted in an interview with the media on the 21st that the U.S. federal government will soon issue new tariff policies to replace the soon-to-expire 10% global import tariff.
3. On July 22, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in local time on July 21 that after the U.S. announced tariffs, he had a phone call with U.S. President Trump. Carney also said that if (the new tariffs) take effect, Canada will consider all response options.
4. On July 21, U.S. President Trump told the media that the U.S. will 「very soon」 launch an attack on Iran’s underground facility “Gedsha” located south of Natanz, and the strike force will be “very fierce.”
5. On July 22, U.S. Central Command: starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time tonight, it will strike military targets within Iran; this is the 11th consecutive night to carry out such actions.
6. On the early morning of July 22, if the U.S. attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities, U.S. interests in the Middle East will face retaliation.
7. On July 22, U.S. stocks opened higher and rallied; all three major indices closed up. Nasdaq rose 1.29%, the S&P 500 rose 0.89%, and the Dow rose 0.74%.
Overall, macro markets’ oil prices are rising due to conflicts and shipping threats. Geopolitical conflicts are escalating one after another, increasing worries about inflation, pushing the probability of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve up to 68%. In this context, it’s hard to say Bitcoin will restart a bull market. Buying activity stays light and cautious to guard against unexpected trend reversals. Near the resistance level, you can also short!
On the daily timeframe: the current BTC price has already shaken off the short-term downward trend and entered a possible range-bound consolidation phase. After breaking a key trend line, buy-side interest has clearly strengthened, but there are still multiple resistances overhead, including prior swing highs and macro policy uncertainty. The monthly timeframe’s high is approaching the MA5 line (68,300). In the short term, if the Middle East conflict escalates again or other unexpected events occur, the price may face profit-taking pressure. Overall, buying should not chase too aggressively. Near resistance levels, a short-selling setup is preferable!
For upside: initial resistance to watch is around the July 6 high of 67,253. Further resistance to watch is around 68,300.
For downside: initial support to watch is around the 30-day moving average of 62,762. Further support to watch is around $60k even $BTC