7.22 Evening In-Depth Review | Don’t fight the trend—it won’t reason with you

When everyone is bearish, will there be surprises?

BTC (big pie) is currently around 65,700. After noon it kept falling from 66,500, then rebounded to 66,000 only to be suppressed—no resistance from the bulls. On the hourly chart, moving averages are spreading bearishly; on the 4-hour chart there are consecutive bearish candles and MACD bearish volume has not shrunk—this is a typical downtrend continuation structure.

65,700 has been tested multiple times; support strength is being gradually weakened, and the probability of a breakdown is increasing. Once it breaks, downside space opens up. Targets: 65,300 and 65,000, then further 64,900.

Ethereum is also weak in sync: capped around 1,900. If it breaks below, look for 1,880.

Trading strategy

Existing short positions: keep your defense in place, be patient, and hold while waiting for downside acceleration.

Big pie: the shorts dominate for now, and rebounds lack strength. Continue maintaining the high-short approach. The key is to watch for resistance opportunities in the 66,000 to 66,200 range. Set defense above 66,500. Targets to the downside in sequence: 65,700, 65,300, 65,000. If 65,700 is effectively broken through in the evening, you can consider adding a small amount to chase the short with a target toward 65,300 to 65,000. For existing shorts, keep your defense in place, be patient, and wait for downside acceleration. The bulls are clearly lacking momentum on the current chart—risk control first. Stay still and wait for the breakdown to play out.

Macro backdrop: BTC.D rises to 59%; funds concentrate into BTC, while altcoins face pressure

BTC market share at 59% is at a relatively high level. Institutional capital prefers BTC, and overall market risk appetite is declining. Inflows into ETH and altcoins are slowing down. Historical patterns suggest that only after BTC.D peaks and pulls back can the altseason launch signal start; we are not yet in a risk-diffusion phase.

BTC spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for 6 straight days. Yesterday was +$227 million. Institutional funds are slowly replenishing, but the scale is limited and it can’t yet be considered a trend reversal.

Peripheral market sentiment reference

South Korean retail traders are aggressively buying SOXL (3x leveraged long semiconductor). This month’s net buying is $2.4 billion, with positions exceeding $5.2 billion. The extreme heat of such leveraged ETFs reflects short-term sentiment rather than a long-term logic—be wary of overheating risk.

Gold breaks above $4,134, and safe-haven funds flow into gold ETFs. Need to distinguish whether it’s genuine risk-off hedging or chasing the rally; holding at high levels brings both high cost and psychological pressure.

China A-share ChiNext ETF has net inflows exceeding 20 billion yuan within the month. Sentiment is recovering, but continuity still needs observation.

Summary: Funds are moving, but direction and persistence are the key. The current BTC short structure is clear; there’s no need to change short-term trading rhythm due to ETF inflows or peripheral news. Keep your defense in place and wait for breakdown and acceleration.

The above is a technical scenario analysis and does not constitute investment advice. For futures, make sure to strictly control position size and stop-loss. #btc$BTC #ETH