Is deep-sea mining about to become commercialized? A deep dive into The Metals Company’s path to commercialization

At the intersection of global energy transition and the reshaping of critical minerals supply chains, a company called The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) is trying to carve out an unprecedented route to resource acquisition—by collecting polymetallic nodules from depths of 4,000 meters on the Pacific Ocean floor. Since 2026, the Canadian company has made a series of key advances in regulatory approvals, commercial partnerships, and legal disputes, while also facing a dual test of environmental controversies and financial pressure.

Why polymetallic nodules on the seafloor have become a new focus of critical minerals

The Metals Company plans to collect polymetallic nodules in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) between Hawaii and Mexico. These potato-sized nodules form naturally over millions of years, are loosely distributed across the seafloor, and contain four high-value commercial metals: nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese. According to the company’s assessment, the area holds more than 1 billion tons of polymetallic nodules.

From the demand side, the explosion in artificial intelligence computing power and the global adoption of electric vehicles are driving a sharp surge in demand for critical metals. According to estimates, in the coming years, the global stock of electric vehicles will surpass 1 billion units, requiring 56 million tons of nickel, 7 million tons of manganese, 7 million tons of cobalt, and 85 million tons of copper. However, in 2019, global production was 2.3 million tons of nickel (only half suitable for batteries), 18 million tons of manganese, 140k tons of cobalt, and 12 million tons of copper, leaving a substantial gap. Traditional mining faces challenges such as declining ore grades, huge investment needs, and lengthy approvals; polymetallic nodules are therefore viewed as a potential strategic supplementary source.

From pilot testing to a commercial system: how the technical path is taking shape

On May 11, 2026, The Metals Company and ocean engineering giant Allseas formally signed commercial development and production agreements, under which they will jointly develop and operate the world’s first commercial-scale deep-sea polymetallic nodule recovery system. The system is designed with an annual production capacity of 3 million wet metric tons, and will deploy two collection vehicles to work in coordination at seafloor depths exceeding 4,000 meters. Allseas previously successfully completed a pilot recovery test in 2022 involving 3,000 tons of nodules. This time, it will take full responsibility for system procurement, integration, and operations, covering core equipment including collection vehicles, deployment and recovery equipment, risers, the surface operations vessel “Hidden Gem,” and a transfer vessel, among others.

Under the agreement, Allseas will shoulder most of the development costs and will recover them gradually through production revenues. Concept and basic design work for critical long-cycle components has already been completed. Bidding and supplier participation are about to begin, and subcontract contracts are expected to be awarded by the end of Q3 2026. The company aims to begin system integration and commissioning in the fourth quarter of 2027, and expects to officially start deep-sea mining operations in the second half of 2027.

Bypassing international frameworks: why the U.S. regulatory channel is a strategic choice

The Metals Company’s choice of regulatory path is one of its most controversial strategic decisions. In early 2025, the company shifted the focus of its licensing application toward the U.S. domestic legal framework, bypassing the deadlock caused by the International Seabed Authority (ISA) not yet finalizing global mining regulations.

On January 22, 2026, TMC’s U.S. subsidiary submitted its first integrated application to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). On April 28, NOAA determined that its “USA A” regional integrated application fully meets the requirements of the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA). On May 28, NOAA further certified the “USA B” exploration license application. The “USA B” area has an estimated size of about 122k square kilometers and is estimated to contain 1.02 billion tons of polymetallic nodules. NOAA will next issue a notice of intent for an environmental impact statement, entering a public comment period. The company expects to obtain final commercial mining licenses before Q1 2027.

This strategy directly triggered legal conflict with the ISA.

Legal conflicts escalate: how ISA litigation could affect industry rules

In June 2026, two subsidiaries of The Metals Company—Nauru Ocean Resources Inc. (NORI) and Tonga Ocean Minerals Ltd. (TOML)—filed a lawsuit against the ISA at the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS). The core dispute is that the ISA lists TMC’s subsidiaries as contractors requiring “special attention,” which TMC argues was made “without a lawful basis for due process,” violating statutory procedures. Previously, the ISA Secretary-General had requested all 21 exploration contractors to provide information on potential contractual violations.

On July 20, 2026, ITLOS’ Seabed Disputes Chamber issued a ruling requiring the ISA to respect the due process rights of NORI and TOML. On the same day, Greenpeace Canada responded, saying TMC’s plan to “unilaterally mine the deep sea” violates international law. On July 22, the Supreme Maritime Court dismissed the mining company’s request to pause the ISA investigation. This legal battle not only concerns the fate of one company, but may also reshape the power dynamics for governance of resources in international waters.

Financial realities and market pricing: the valuation logic before commercialization

As of March 31, 2026, The Metals Company had not generated any revenue. In Q1 2026, its net loss was $140k, and its operating loss was $122k. The company held about $119.7 million in cash, and had about $164 million in liquid funds (including credit facilities).

As of July 22, 2026, based on Gate market data, TMC’s share price was $4.02 USD. The 52-week high was $11.35 USD (October 13, 2025), and the current price is down about 64.6% from the high. The consensus analyst rating is “Strong Buy,” with a 12-month average target price of $10.83 USD. On January 2026, HC Wainwright raised its target price to $11.75 USD.

The market’s pricing logic is built on expectations of successful commercialization, not on current profitability. Progress on regulatory approvals, outcomes of legal disputes, and the direction of environmental controversies are key variables affecting valuation.

Environmental controversies and scientific uncertainty: the ethical dilemma of deep-sea mining

The main questions surrounding deep-sea mining center on the fact that human understanding of deep-sea ecosystems remains extremely limited. Environmental groups warn that deploying industrial collection equipment on the seafloor may lead to irreversible loss of biodiversity and permanently disrupt benthic ecosystems. On July 19, 2026, Greenpeace launched a protest in Basel, saying deep-sea mining’s disruption to ecosystems will be “catastrophic.”

The Metals Company’s response includes: submitting long-running biological and geochemical sample data—covering a decade—from 2013 to 2022 to the DeepData public database managed by the ISA. The company’s environmental manager said, “No mining is sustainable; it fundamentally involves extracting finite resources,” while emphasizing that nodule collection does not require drilling and blasting, and therefore could theoretically avoid some of the environmental impacts of traditional mining.

At the heart of this controversy is an unavoidable question: the world needs critical minerals to address climate change, but extracting these minerals from the seafloor may cause severe environmental damage. The tension between these two urgent priorities forms the most fundamental ethical dilemma facing the deep-sea mining industry.

Geopolitical variables: the role of the deep sea in the contest over critical minerals supply chains

Geopolitical factors bring additional strategic value to The Metals Company. China is a major global supplier of rare earth metals and has used rare earth supply as a bargaining tool, prompting countries such as the United States to push for diversification of critical mineral supply. In April 2025, President Trump signed an executive order aimed at accelerating the licensing approval of seabed minerals in international waters. In January 2026, the U.S. government ultimately finalized rules to speed up deep-sea mining in international waters.

The U.S. argues, under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act, that its citizens conducting deep-sea mining activities in international waters falls under the freedom of the high seas. This legal stance directly contrasts with the ISA’s multilateral system under the framework of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The Metals Company is at the forefront of the collision between these two legal regimes.

Summary

The Metals Company represents an unconventional model for resource development: it does not mine land, nor does it operate mines onshore; instead, it collects polymetallic nodules formed over millions of years from the Pacific Ocean floor. 2026 is a pivotal turning point for the company as it moves from exploration toward commercialization—its commercial agreement with Allseas locks in the technical path, NOAA’s certifications advance the regulatory process, and the legal sparring with the ISA tests the resilience of governance in international waters.

However, commercialization has not truly started yet. The company has not generated revenue, continues to post losses, and final licensing is not expected to land until Q1 2027. The combined effects of environmental controversies, legal uncertainty, and technical risks make its outlook highly uncertain. For industry observers, the value of The Metals Company lies not only in the possibility of becoming the world’s first commercial deep-sea mining operator, but also in the fact that it is defining the boundaries of rules in this emerging industry—no matter the ultimate outcome, its path is likely to become an important reference point in the history of deep-sea resource development.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Where does The Metals Company plan to mine metals from the seafloor?

A: The company plans to conduct operations in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the Pacific, an international waters area between Hawaii and Mexico. The company holds NORI D blocks and multiple exploration areas such as TMC USA A and USA B.

Q: What metals do polymetallic nodules contain?

A: Polymetallic nodules mainly contain four commercially valuable metals: nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese. These metals are key raw materials for electric vehicle batteries, clean energy technologies, and defense applications.

Q: When will The Metals Company start commercial production?

A: The company expects to receive final commercial mining licenses before Q1 2027. System commissioning is targeted to begin in Q4 2027, and it plans to officially start deep-sea mining operations in the second half of 2027.

Q: What is the company’s current financial situation?

A: As of Q1 2026, the company has not generated any revenue and its net loss was $20.6M. It holds about $119.7 million in cash and about $164 million in liquid funds.

Q: What are the main controversies surrounding deep-sea mining?

A: The main controversy is uncertainty about environmental impact. Environmental groups and scientists warn that deep-sea ecosystems remain poorly understood by humans, and deep-sea mining could lead to irreversible biodiversity loss and ecosystem damage. Supporters argue that nodule collection does not require drilling and blasting, which could avoid some environmental costs of traditional mining.

Q: What legal dispute exists between the International Seabed Authority (ISA) and The Metals Company?

A: TMC’s two subsidiaries, NORI and TOML, sued the ISA at ITLOS, accusing the ISA of placing them on the list of “contractors requiring special attention” by “violating statutory due process.” In July 2026, the tribunal ruled that the ISA must respect the subsidiaries’ due process rights.