Investment heavyweight Bill Ackman: Sold Alphabet to add to Microsoft, betting on AI infrastructure; Bitcoin and gold are speculation rather than investments

Compiled & Edited: Deep Tide TechFlow

Guest: Bill Ackman, CEO and Founder of Pershing Square Capital Management

Host: Nicole Lapin, Money Rehab

Podcast Source: Money News Network

Original Title: Which Companies Bill Ackman Is Bullish and Bearish on Right Now

Air Date: July 20, 2026

Disclosures: Pershing Square manages about $14 billion in assets, concentrated in 11 U.S. stocks. Revenue comes from management fees and performance fees. This episode discusses market and individual-stock judgment. Ackman personally does not hold Bitcoin or gold. The interview includes promotional content for PSUS (Pershing Square’s publicly traded fund).

Key Takeaways

Bill Ackman runs one of Wall Street’s most concentrated hedge fund portfolios: $14 billion betting on 11 stocks, with the top five holdings accounting for 78%. In this interview, he laid out a few specific “hands” he played. He just sold Alphabet, added $2 billion to Microsoft, betting on the AI infrastructure wave from hyperscalers. He didn’t dress it up in mystique—the core logic boils down to a few words: buy companies with predictable outcomes, and earn compounding returns. His biggest concern about the market isn’t valuation—it’s that highly leveraged players could, at some point, be forced to flee all at once. On Bitcoin and gold, his exact words were: “I don’t know whether it’s worth 50k, 70k, or $5,000 or $1 trillion—but I don’t need to know. Investing just needs you to know what you know and what you don’t.”

Highlights and Viewpoints

AI is the main storyline; everything else is noise

• “This is a really special point in history. AI is driving a lot of startups and giving a very broad range of people access to intelligence at extremely low cost.”
• “The biggest few companies are competing to build the models that lead to superintelligence. They’re grabbing land, building data centers, and filling GPUs. It’s a ‘land-grab war.’”
• “I’m not very willing to bet on frontier-model companies. Open-source models are getting better, and people will soon be able to get models that solve most problems at low cost—or even for free.”

Every company in the portfolio is handpicked

• “Some companies we’ve wanted to buy for a long time but were too expensive before—Amazon, Meta, Uber, and Microsoft are all on that list. A ton of capital is chasing the ‘new, new thing’—semiconductors, memory, wherever the money is. What we’re looking at is where we can earn high compounded returns over the next three to five years.”
• “Uber is very cheap right now because the market thinks Tesla’s autonomous ride-hailing taxis will disrupt it. I think consumers will still open the Uber App to request rides. They want the cheapest car and the fastest way to get me from A to B.”
• “Want to know which giant will win? SpaceX is the only place that can get you access to 100k GPUs, and the returns are extremely high. The only worry is the price. When the market cap is $60–$70 trillion, the upside imagination space gets smaller.”

Don’t touch Bitcoin or gold because they’re speculation

• “Satoshi Nakamoto is a genius. If I had read the white paper when Bitcoin was trading at 20 cents, I might have bought some. But I don’t, because it doesn’t generate returns. The value of companies is because they can generate cash flow in the future. With gold and Bitcoin, it’s only about how much other people are willing to pay. That’s not investment—it’s speculation.”
• “I’ve indirectly invested in blockchain companies through some VC funds. I’m very interested technically. But trading all kinds of coins isn’t my thing.”

What the market fears most isn’t high valuations

• “In some places, the market really isn’t cheap. But looking at overall PE and asking whether it’s expensive or not doesn’t really mean anything. The top few companies today—Nvidia, Microsoft, Google—are far higher quality than the top few companies 20 years ago. They should deserve higher valuation multiples.”
• “My biggest concern is that there are too many leveraged players in the market. If some kind of external shock hits, people panic-sell. The ones with leverage get forcibly liquidated, which triggers a chain reaction where more people sell. Stocks could drop a lot.”
• “If you’re running an unlevered portfolio, holding a bunch of high-quality companies, and you don’t need that money tomorrow, then a big drop is actually an opportunity to add to your position.”
• “Don’t borrow money to trade stocks—that’s how you get wiped out. Carl Icahn levered up his own holdings. His $20 billion net worth became $3–$50k. Even rich people can lose huge amounts of money.”

Don’t play intraday options

• “I don’t like the intraday options craze—that’s gambling. Nobody can predict whether a stock will go up or down within a single day unless you have insider information. It’s just a crazy game.”

“We’re not predicting the future—we’re just noticing what others aren’t paying attention to”

Nicole Lapin: Your actions in 2008 made it feel like you could see the future. What did you see?

Bill Ackman: What people call “predicting the future” is often nothing more than studying the present carefully and finding similar cases in history. In the years before 2008, we saw a group of companies doing crazy things: bond insurers holding AAA ratings, as good as the government’s credit, yet guaranteeing high-risk mortgage loans, charging premiums, and showing profits on their statements. It wasn’t sustainable. It wasn’t predicting the future—it was seeing that something was wrong in the present, and knowing it would blow up eventually.

As for the future, the market will always be volatile. I don’t know what the specific trigger will be, but there’s massive speculation in the market—both professional investors and retail traders using large amounts of leverage. If I can give you just one piece of advice: don’t borrow money to trade stocks. And also, don’t use the money you need to get through everyday life to place bets.

How those 11 stocks were selected

Nicole Lapin: Pershing Square holds only 11 to 12 stocks—why so concentrated?

Bill Ackman: We’re looking for the best businesses in the world—ones that can stand the test of time, at least not be disrupted by AI. Ideally, they’re the beneficiaries of AI.

There are some companies in our portfolio that we’ve wanted to buy for a long time, but they only recently became reasonable. Amazon, Meta, Uber, and Microsoft are all on that list. A lot of money is chasing where the market has recently made money—semiconductors, memory. But what we’re focused on is assets that can deliver high compounded returns to us over the next three to five years.

Brookfield also fully fits this model. It does asset management—private equity, real estate, infrastructure—especially power and energy-related businesses. The wave of data center construction will require a lot of infrastructure, and Brookfield is right positioned there. It helps others manage money, earning equity interests and fees from it—it's a good business.

Nicole Lapin: You recently bought $2 billion worth of Microsoft while selling some Alphabet. Does that mean you’re no longer bullish on Alphabet?

Bill Ackman: Two things matter a lot to us: business quality and price. We want to buy at a price that offers an attractive return. Sometimes one of the stocks we hold rises to a level where the future returns fall below our threshold—we sell it. Selling Google isn’t because we’re bearish on it. Google is still an incredible company. It’s just that once the price reaches a certain point, the subsequent returns are not as good as putting that money into buying Microsoft.

Right now Microsoft is about $387 per share. If you want to buy Microsoft using $310, you don’t need to wait for it to drop to that price—just buy PSUS. PSUS is the publicly traded fund we manage. Relative to NAV, it’s trading at a 22% discount. And this basket contains Microsoft.

Ackman’s most bullish and most bearish

Nicole Lapin: Let’s play a game called “Bullish or Bearish.” Gold?

Bill Ackman: No view. I don’t buy gold, although I’ve bought jewelry for my wife. My dad bought gold many years ago—around the 1970s—and held it ever since. It’s not a good investment. I told him: when gold rises above $4,000, sell it. He listened. I’d rather hold businesses that can compound.

The issue with gold is that how much it’s worth depends only on the price others are willing to pay for it, with no returns. Every asset I invest in generates some kind of return—profits, dividends, rent. I treat gold purely as speculation; I don’t call it an investment.

Nicole Lapin: What about Bitcoin?

Bill Ackman: Also no. It’s very similar—basically the same as gold. Satoshi Nakamoto is a genius. If I had read the white paper when Bitcoin was at 20 cents, I might have bought some. But I don’t know whether it’s worth $50k, $70k, or $5,000, or $1 trillion. The beauty of investing is that you don’t need a view on every category—you just need to know what you know and what you don’t. I don’t understand Bitcoin, and I don’t understand gold, so I don’t touch either.

I’ve indirectly invested in companies with blockchain and crypto at the core of their business through some VC funds. Technically, I’m very interested. But trading all kinds of coins isn’t my thing.

Nicole Lapin: What about Chipotle?

Bill Ackman: One of our most successful investments. We bought when it hit a food safety crisis and helped recruit Brian Niccol. He later went to Starbucks, and the management team that took over faced some challenges. I think long-term the company is in a great position, but on the stock price right now I don’t have a strong directional view.

Nicole Lapin: Starbucks?

Bill Ackman: They have a very talented CEO running it. But Starbucks has pushed prices up to a fairly high level over a long period of time, and I don’t think there’s much room left for more price hikes. The customer experience has also been declining. Brian is trying to pull it back.

Nicole Lapin: U.S. Treasuries?

Bill Ackman: Treasuries are a place to park cash. But if you make me choose, I’d rather hold high-quality companies long-term than Treasuries.

The risks he truly worries about

Nicole Lapin: What’s the next crisis? Will there be a second 2008?

Bill Ackman: There’s always something worth worrying about. First, the U.S. government spends more than it takes in. We have about $34 trillion in government debt, and they keep issuing debt to cover the deficit. To make matters worse, the AI infrastructure wave is causing a lot of companies to issue debt too, driving a surge in demand for credit—while the government itself is also issuing even more Treasuries. With so much supply, investors have to absorb it, which could push interest rates higher.

The second risk is even more damaging: there are too many leveraged players in the market. If some kind of external shock comes in from the side, people panic and sell. Those who borrowed money get forced-liquidated, and the chain reaction drags even more selling. Stock prices could drop a lot.

But if what you run is an unlevered portfolio—holding a batch of high-quality companies—and you don’t need that money tomorrow, then that’s your opportunity to add. If you’re carrying margin debt, you’ll be forced to liquidate at the bottom, which is the last thing you want.

Buffett’s secret is longevity. He designed Berkshire so it never gets margin-called, so it can keep compounding. Some years we were up 30%, 40%. Some years we were down—and this year we’re barely down. That’s fine. You don’t need to make money every year. What you need is to survive—to let good companies compound over time.

Nicole Lapin: Is the market expensive overall right now?

Bill Ackman: Some areas are expensive. But in general, the market PE is 21 now versus a historical average of 17—saying “that sounds high” doesn’t really help much. Market value depends on future earnings, and earnings have been exceeding expectations, with growth also faster than in most of the past. And right now, the biggest companies by market cap—Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Meta—are far higher quality and growing faster than the top few companies 20 years ago. They should deserve higher valuation multiples.

If Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta were all cheap, it would be hard to say the entire market is expensive.

A roadmap for young people

Nicole Lapin: If someone has $1,000 right now to invest, how would you allocate it?

Bill Ackman: Find a few companies—not too many—that don’t use a lot of leverage. The ones you like, admire, and trust that decision-making is always reliable. And you must deeply believe this: if the stock market closed tomorrow for ten years, you’d still be willing to hold it for those ten years.

Don’t invest in what looks hottest right now. Invest in what you think can stand the test of time. A company’s value is the discounted value of all the cash flows it will produce over its life—you need to be confident it can last a long time.

Where exactly is the starting point? In fact, as a consumer, you often spot good things earlier than Wall Street does. Many of the earliest shareholders in Tesla were retail investors—institutions didn’t figure out how great it was. Look at what products and services you use in your life that make you think they’re impressive, and think about whether they can withstand competition. Amazon—every time I want to buy a book, I go to Amazon. The pharmacy experience in New York—you’ve probably had it too: everything locked behind plastic partitions, and you still have to find a clerk to open it. Amazon delivers in two hours. Who could compete with that?

Nicole Lapin: What do you think about young people playing intraday options every day?

Bill Ackman: That’s gambling. Nobody knows whether a stock will go up or down within a single day. Unless you have insider information.

Nicole Lapin: What’s the formula for success?

Bill Ackman: It’s all the most basic things: show up on time for work, do a bit more than others do, keep your word, under-promise and over-deliver. If you enter an industry and spend time turning yourself into the best-informed person in that field, people will notice.

In my first real estate job, every day at lunch I went to the McGraw Hill bookstore to read real estate books. The knowledge it gave me took my peers years of experience to learn. In the AI era, you can have AI teach you anything—that’s far simpler than flipping through books at a bookstore back then.

I’ve seen workplace winners. They’re usually not the people with the highest IQ. It’s the ones other people like, the ones people trust, the ones who do a little more than others, who have a bit of creativity, and never give up. You can have these things starting tomorrow. You can’t change your IQ, but you can work harder than others—you can be honest. Those are choices.

Don’t use today’s pocket money to bet away tomorrow’s compounding

Nicole Lapin: Last question—what advice would you give listeners that they can “just put in the bank”?

Bill Ackman: First, start investing early—put a little money aside every month and invest it in the market. If you don’t have time to pick stocks, buy index funds. If you do have time, find the best company in the industry. Don’t buy high-leverage companies. Buy companies you believe will be much bigger in five, ten, twenty years. Buy companies that are unlikely to be disrupted by “two Stanford girls fresh out of college messing around in a garage.”

Where compounding is most powerful is time. Most investors are short-sighted, while long-term players have a huge competitive advantage. And the government currently only taxes you when you sell—so your profit can雪球 without taxes, rolling forward. If you can open an IRA or a Trump savings account, compounding can still be tax-free.