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The CLARITY Act hits a 43% passing probability!—Is a new dawn for crypto regulation here, or just another round of empty waiting?
🔥 The U.S. Crypto Market Structure Act enters a life-or-death sprint:
• Polymarket’s probability crashes from 75% to 43%
• Trump agrees to the ethics provisions, but progressives launch a fierce attack on the lead, Gillibrand
• Senator Lummis warns: if this year’s window is missed, it may mean waiting until 2030
• JPMorgan says passage would be an "all-digital-assets positive catalyst," forecasting a big market surge in H2, with only about a 3-week window left before the August recess.
The bill categorizes crypto assets into three types—digital commodities, investment contract assets, and payment stablecoins—ending the decade-long jurisdiction battle between the SEC and CFTC.
But political fighting is heating up: progressives among the Democratic Party have initiated a joint letter attacking Gillibrand; her son’s involvement in the crypto industry has made her an ethical target; the 60-vote cloture threshold still remains undecided.
👇 Will the CLARITY Act still have a chance to pass this year? If it passes or fails, what does it mean for the market?
•🅰️ Can pass before August! Clear regulation = institutions enter the market, BTC surges straight to 70K+ •🅱️ The political battle is too intense—chances of passing this year are slim, while Grayscale continues to torment the industry •🅲** It doesn’t really matter whether it passes—Grayscale, in fact, has created room for innovation and arbitrage opportunities** •🅳** The bill is a positive, but it has already been overhyped in the short term; the real market catalyst is the Federal Reserve**
💬 Is regulation a crypto helping hand or a constraint? Will the CLARITY Act settle it once and for all, or is this just another round of waiting? 🔥#事件合约上线 #特朗普同意Clarity法案纳入伦理条款