Odds on a major crypto bill passing just jumped to 47% on Polymarket, and nobody has actually seen the new text yet.

Betting markets moved the CLARITY Act's chances up from a record low last week, based entirely on unverified reports that a key ethics provision got resolved.
No bill language has been published. The move so far is pure speculation about what might be true, not confirmation of anything.
This happens constantly in markets. A rumor moves the number first, and the actual facts catch up later, if they ever do. Worth remembering before treating any single percentage jump as settled information.