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The CLARITY Act has reached a critical crossroads—latest developments and what passage could mean for crypto

On July 17, 2025, the U.S. House passed the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) by an overwhelming margin of 294 votes to 134, like a sudden thunderclap that jolted the entire crypto world. Yet ten months later, the bill is still struggling through the sharp edge of the Senate. Where does it stand right now? Which step is it stuck on? And once it’s passed, what impact will it have on the crypto market? Little Lucky Coin is here to chat with you about it today:

1. Where is the bill at right now?

As of July 22, 2026, the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill on May 14 by a vote of 15 to 9 and sent it out of committee, while the Agriculture Committee also moved the Digital Goods Intermediary Act on January 29. The two tracks are progressing in parallel, but they haven’t merged yet—the text differences and jurisdictional division between the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee still need to be coordinated. On the Senate’s public calendar, no specific date has been listed for a full-Senate vote so far. Even more urgent, the Senate will enter its state work period on August 10; if there is still no unified text and schedule by then, the bill will be pushed into a crowded fall political calendar, and the outlook is concerning.

Running in parallel with the CLARITY Act is the GENIUS Act, signed into law on July 18, 2025. The act provides for an earliest effective date of January 18, 2027. At present, regulators including the OCC, FDIC, and FinCEN have already launched dense rounds of requests for comments on implementation details. Compliance frameworks such as reserve management, redemption capability, and monthly disclosures are being laid out at full speed. Together, the two bills—one after the other, with one attacking and one defending—are jointly weaving the regulatory net for U.S. stablecoins.

2. How likely is it to be passed?

Market sentiment is like a roller coaster. On the Polymarket platform, the probability that the CLARITY Act would be signed into law in 2026 had once surged to 90%, then plunged to 48% after negotiations broke down in June. After Trump softened his stance on the ethics provisions on July 21, it rebounded to 43%. Galaxy Research assessed its probability of passage for the year as “about a fifty-fifty split,” while independent policy analysts lowered it step-by-step from 60% to 50%. Putting everyone’s figures together, the current probability of passage roughly falls in the 50% to 70% range—everything hinges on the final negotiations over the ethics provisions.

Why is it so difficult? Because the Senate’s “filibuster-lengthy debate” rules are like a wall of copper and iron: to end debate, a motion needs at least an absolute majority of 60 votes. The Republicans have only 53 seats. Even if every Republican supports it, they still need to secure at least 7 votes from Democrats (currently 2 are in hand, still missing 5). And those 5 votes are precisely locked down by the ethics provisions.

3. Time is tight! What stages is the bill stuck on right now?

The CLARITY Act stands on the blade’s edge of history. The last week of July and the first week of August are its remaining legislative window. Trump’s nod, Witt’s insistence on postponing military training, and the final standoff between the two parties over the ethics provisions are the three major obstacles the bill faces:

First obstacle: the ethics provisions—the elephant in the room.

This is the biggest roadblock right now. Democrats are pushing for strict limits on profits from the crypto industry by the president, vice president, members of Congress, and their family members, directly targeting the Meme coin issued by Trump and the DeFi projects led by his family, World Liberty Financial (WLF). Senators Warren, Murphy, Reed, Van Hollen, and others jointly stated that they “cannot support the current version.” On July 22, Trump finally nodded in agreement to include the ethics provisions, and White House crypto adviser Witt also confirmed the news is true—but the Democratic camp has not yet seen the final text, leaving room for uncertainty. As the CEO of the Blockchain Association, Summer Mersinger, put it: “The ethics issue is the elephant in the room, but please don’t let it ruin all the effort we’ve put into other parts of the bill.”

Second obstacle: the dispute over regulatory authority—the SEC vs. the CFTC dividing the river.

How the SEC and CFTC should split jurisdiction over digital assets and intermediaries remains unresolved. The Banking Committee favors letting banks participate in custody and payments, while the Agriculture Committee strongly pushes for the CFTC’s regulatory authority over digital goods spot markets. The two frameworks collide, making coordination extremely difficult.

Third obstacle: the blurry zone of business models and enforcement boundaries.

Section 404 of the Senate text attempts to limit “deposit-like” earnings earned only from holding stablecoins, while still preserving rewards for payments, market making, and genuine transactions—how to distinguish “passive yield” from “genuine transaction rewards” directly determines a platform’s profit logic. In addition, how DeFi, illicit finance, and sanctions evasion should be incorporated into a responsibility framework also remains an open question.

4. The last mile: How many steps are left before the bill officially takes effect?

Even if the full Senate votes through the bill smoothly, the CLARITY Act still has a long journey before becoming law:

Two-chamber coordination: If the Senate passes a different version from the House, a unified text must be formed and survive votes in both chambers;

House reconsideration: The House is currently stuck in a deadlock due to internal disagreements within the Republican Party, so the next steps are highly uncertain;

Presidential signature: Although Trump has softened his stance on the ethics provisions, he previously refused to sign a bipartisan housing bill and asked Congress to prioritize voting system reform. Ultimately, his final attitude still needs to be observed;

Implementation rules taking effect: The final rules for the GENIUS Act will take effect either before January 18, 2027 or 120 days after the rules are issued. July 18, 2028 is the hard deadline for compliance switching for offshore issuers.

In other words, from passage to real-world implementation, there is still at least a buffer period of one and a half to three years.

5. If passed, what impact will it have on the crypto circle?

If the CLARITY Act ultimately becomes law, its significance is not “replacing bank accounts overnight with stablecoins,” but gradually embedding digital assets into a financial framework that traditional institutions can use, regulators can hold accountable, and users can redeem.

For the issuing side: reserve management, redemption capability, monthly disclosures, and multi-jurisdiction licensing will become core baseline requirements. Large issuers can more easily spread compliance costs thanks to banks and institutional channels, while small issuers face a harsh re-evaluation of licensing investments and distribution capability.

For the circulation side: trading platforms and wallets will transform from mere traffic entry points into regulated financial intermediaries. Customer asset segregation, information disclosures, and service provider registrations will raise operating barriers. Banks, in turn, may shift from being competitors to stablecoins into entry points, custodians, and settlement partners.

For institutional users: once the legal foundation is clear for counterparties, customer assets, collateral, and settlement finality, the friction for stablecoins to enter FX settlement, collateral management, and capital market trading will drop substantially. The willingness of enterprises and institutions to keep more on-chain cash long-term is where the real value lies.

For offshore issuers: U.S. registration, enforcement cooperation, and regulatory mutual recognition will become must-answer questions. Compliance costs will rise, but that also means clearer market access rules.