Big trouble! A blockbuster SpaceX-level unlock bomb has detonated: the stock price has plunged 37%, shorts have made $7 billion in profit—do retail investors still have a way out?

On August 6, an unprecedented stock unlock is set to take effect. About 911.5 million shares held by SpaceX insiders—corresponding to a market value of $116 billion—will officially enter public trading. This is not a standard 180-day unlock after an IPO. SpaceX has designed a phased release plan aimed at cushioning the impact, but the market has already voted with its feet.

From the June 16 closing high, the share price has fallen 37% in total, with more than $425 billion in market value wiped out. The stock bounced 3.8% during Tuesday’s trading session—perhaps ending a seven-day losing streak—but the shorts have already reaped huge profits. S3 Partners data shows that currently about 30% of tradable shares are being shorted, and the shorts’ paper gains are about $7 billion.

The unlock structure is unconventional. The first batch of 900 million shares is just a starter; by early December, the number of shares available for trading will jump from the current 639 million shares to 5.33 billion shares—an increase of more than 7 times. There is also a conditional trigger mechanism: if SpaceX’s share price stands at least $175.50 for at least five of the ten trading days before the earnings announcement, an additional 455.8 million shares will be immediately allowed to trade. Based on Monday’s close of $119.85, the stock would need to rise 46% more to trigger it, and markets generally believe the hurdle is extremely high.

Musk himself holds about 7.8 billion shares, about 60% of the total outstanding. But his lockup period extends to more than one year after the company’s listing, so it will not become a source of near-term selling pressure. The real pressure comes from early investors. A year ago, SpaceX’s private valuation was about $400 billion; after the company acquired xAI this year, its overall valuation surged to $1 trillion (xAI valuation: $250 billion). That deal has multiplied the paper gains for many early investors. A phased unlock means they can gradually exit over the coming months, taking profits in batches at different price levels.

The shorts are already moving in force. In addition to the unlock expectations, Starship rocket launches were halted due to engine problems, and funding rotating away from AI concept stocks also intensified selling pressure. Over the past 12 trading days, SpaceX closed down on 10 days. This kind of extreme volatility has also spilled over into the entire newly listed stock market. According to Bloomberg data, this year the weighted average return of newly listed companies has fallen to -4.4%. Even excluding SpaceX and SK Hynix, the overall return is only 5.3%, far below the S&P 500’s 9.4% in the same period.

How to balance releasing liquidity with stabilizing the stock price is the core challenge for SpaceX and its underwriting team over the next few months. For retail investors, remember one thing: when 30% of tradable shares are being shorted, early investors are waiting to cash out, and there’s also an 8x increase in float on the way, any rebound could just be a trap.

Follow me: Get more real-time crypto market analysis and insights!

#GUSD年化升至3.8% $BTC $ETH $SOL # Event contract goes live #ETH breaks $1900