#夏日创作营 BTC on the short term remains bullish, with the rebound target looking up to 67,000.

Yesterday near 64,000, I prompted a low buy again; the highest has already touched 65,770—the pace was basically on point. Since the drop from 83,000, I have been closely watching 57,500 as a key level. My take was that once the test is done, a solid rebound would likely be triggered, so I decisively bottom-picked around 58,000 and held the long all the way to 65,500. Last week, I shorted around 65,000 back to 62,800, then afterward I added long positions back in batches at 62,800 and 64,000. Overall, both the larger direction and the short-term timing matched expectations.

I believe the core of the analysis isn’t predicting every single K-line, but rather laying out key levels in advance and how things might evolve. Half a month ago, I already marked two nodes: 65,500 and 68,000. The current market is still within a high-level consolidation-and-uptrend channel, and it has also reclaimed the daily 60-day moving average—bulls still hold the upper hand.

Next, I hope price continues upward to test 67,000, first to clear the previous high’s short-side liquidity. Once the upper liquidity has been consumed, then we can focus on the 55,000-50,000 area below. If price revisits that range again in the future, it will be a very worthwhile opportunity to focus on spot accumulation. As for whether a direct reversal happens after breaking 67,000, it’s still hard to say; but 68,000 is the key observation level I’m watching most. As long as that level shows a fake breakout and is accompanied by bearish signals on smaller timeframes, medium-term short positions can be considered. Before the signals show up, there’s no need to guess the top early.

On the short term, price is still slowly climbing within the channel—this pace isn’t explosive, but it’s actually more steady. What really needs caution is a sudden strong acceleration into a big bullish candle; rapid rallies easily overspend buy-side demand, and afterward it often comes with exhaustion.

At the moment, continue to stay bullish above 63,700, with the key focus on the 66,000-67,000 zone. Those holding longs can continue to hold and set protection. Those on the sidelines should watch for a low-buy opportunity around 64,400. However, the closer we get to 67,000-68,000, the less suitable it is to chase blindly; this area may gradually enter a phase of a topping formation. A top won’t be built in one step. Most likely, there will be repeated pushes higher and consolidation, followed by the final retest down—only then is it truly the time to consider a large allocation to spot.