U.S. stock markets are entering this week’s critical “technology earnings super week.” After earlier digestion and consolidation following selloffs led by the AI chip sector, volatility at high levels has intensified.

With the second-quarter earnings reporting season fully underway, 86 companies among S&P 500 constituents are scheduled to release results in a dense wave this week. Market focus has shifted from a single theme of “AI hardware capacity expansion” to whether “capital inflows and outflows from tech giants can be converted into real cash flow.”

In addition, energy risk premia boosted by geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East have also kept intertwining with the macro interest-rate environment and risk-averse sentiment.

The S&P 500 index’s current forward P/E (dynamic P/E) is about 20.2x, representing a mild correction from the highs seen in the past few years.

Against a backdrop in which earnings expectations have generally been raised, Wall Street’s bar for “beating expectations” is extremely high. Any guidance that falls short of expectations is likely to trigger selloffs as profit-taking is unleashed from elevated levels.

Recent U.S. CPI and PPI data both show that inflation has slowed somewhat, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause tightening. However, the Middle East situation has pushed oil prices higher; the geopolitical risk premium has driven the energy sector up against the trend recently, partially offsetting the improvement in macro sentiment.

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