1. Market Overview

Today is Tuesday, July 21, 2026. The crypto market continues a recovery. Bitcoin broke through the $65,000 psychological level, briefly touching above $66,600 during the day; it is currently consolidating around $66,400. Bitcoin’s 24-hour gain is about 2.75%, and this week’s cumulative gain is about 5%. Ethereum is up to around $1,950; it rose about 3.1% in a single day and has gained 8% over the past seven trading days. Solana is up 2.52%, and XRP is up 1.67%.
2. News Analysis
Positive factors: 1. Chip stocks rebound boosts risk appetite—The selloff in semiconductor stocks that weighed on the crypto market last week has reversed. Asian semiconductor stocks led the gains, with the MSCI Asia Pacific index up 2%, ending a four-day losing streak.
2. ETFs continue to see net inflows—US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded inflows for 5 consecutive trading days, with cumulative inflows exceeding $600 million, reversing the previously ongoing eight-week outflow trend. On July 21, daily inflows into the BTC ETF were about $76 million, and inflows into the ETH ETF were about $106 million.
3. Russia passes digital currency regulatory bill—Russia’s State Duma approved a comprehensive regulatory bill for digital currencies, for the first time standardizing operating rules for market participants such as crypto exchanges and digital custodians.
4. Institutional options bet on upside—Institutions have bought large amounts of BTC call options expiring at the end of July with a strike price of $72,000, coinciding with the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting around month-end.
Negative factors: 1. FATF warns of regulatory enforcement lag—While 83% of global jurisdictions have passed legislation for the “Travel Rule,” actual enforcement is severely delayed. A lack of DeFi regulation poses risks.
2. Tether USDT faces compliance uncertainty—One year after the GENIUS Act was signed, USDT faces about a two-year compliance grace period; by then, stablecoins that fail to meet requirements will not be able to be traded on US crypto platforms.
3. Spot trading volume remains weak—Although prices are rising, spot market trading volume is insufficient, suggesting the rally is driven more by a return of risk appetite than by forming strong new bullish consensus.
3. Technical Analysis
BTC: The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to an extreme tight range, with the distance between the upper and lower bands at only about 2,200 points. Price is above the middle band (64,767). This kind of volatility compression is often a typical sign ahead of a major move. The RSI across three cycles is evenly distributed around 53-55, with no overbought/oversold conditions; long/short positions remain in a fragile balance. On the 4-hour timeframe, BTC has been consistently forming higher highs and higher lows.
ETH: ETH’s rebound high in this cycle was $1,954, and the pullback low was $1,803. It is currently in the consolidation and repair phase below the high. In the short term, watch whether it can break through the $2,000 level effectively.
4. On-Chain Data Analysis
1. 30-day MVRV turns positive—The 30-day MVRV indicators for BTC, ETH, ADA, XRP, and LINK have risen back to above the neutral zero line, meaning positions accumulated over the past month are in a modest profit state. However, note that once momentum stalls, the risk of taking profits in the short term increases.
2. ETH whale staking—A new address withdrew 74,033 ETH from Gemini (about $136 million) and staked them all, reducing short-term circulating supply in the market.
3. Long-term holders awaken—An early participant in an ETH ICO transferred 2,000 ETH (about $3.79 million) after 11 years of dormancy; the initial investment was only $620.
Chu Yuechen: 7.21 Bitcoin & ETH trading reference
The current market is in a consolidation and recovery stage. Liquidity (ETF continued inflows) and macro (chip stock rebound) provide short-term support, but sentiment (Fear & Greed Index at 29, still in an extreme fear range) and trading volume (spot remains weak) limit upside room. Whether BTC can hold above $65,000 on a weekly timeframe is the key in the short term. If it can break through 67,300 with strong volume and hold, upside space opens; if multiple attempts are repeatedly blocked, the risk of pullbacks will increase. On the downside, focus on the 64,800-64,900 support zone. For ETH, watch whether it can break through the $2,000 level.
Trading reference: Try a short position if BTC is above 67,000, with a stop-loss at 68,500 and a target at 65,000. Watch the pullback support strength in the 64,500--65,000 range; if it looks tradable, consider going long, defending at 63,500. For ETH, similarly try shorts in the $1,950--$2,000 range, with a stop-loss at 2,050 and targets at 1,850--1,800. If price provides 1,800 on the downside, consider going long.
That’s the idea; specific execution still needs to enter at the right time based on real-time market changes! There are daily scalping operations, while the medium-to-long term positioning continues. Feel free to share your views. #比特币