Bitcoin is back to 66K—this is a good signal. It has reached the highest level in nearly two months, but it has also returned to an early-year period of heavy trading.

The implied volatility across major tenors has basically not changed. All within-year term IVs are below 40%, and investors have already adapted to this extremely low-volatility market.
This year, only during the most sharply down period in February did the main tenor IVs break above 50%. Most of the time, they were below 45%—maybe this is the new steady state for crypto options.
This week, we plan to work with AI to do an analysis comparing how IV has changed over the years, rather than trying to “judge where the bear market has gone” purely by IV.