Behind the rebound in chip stocks, the US stock market is waiting for an “earnings-report trial”

This week, the US stock market opened with a contradictory signal: the three major indexes fell slightly overall, but the semiconductor sector—after a run of consecutive selloffs—was the first to rebound. On July 20, the Dow fell by about 0.6%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, and the Nasdaq was close to flat at the close. Chip stocks staged a clear turnaround during the trading session; Micron, AMD, Marvell, and other companies rose, providing support for the technology sector.

But from the perspective of fund positioning, Wall Street has not become optimistic again because of this rebound.

According to S3 Partners data, the short position in S&P 500 constituent stocks has risen to 3.79% of free-float shares, and the Russell 3000 index reached 6.3%, both setting new highs since the firm began compiling the statistics. At the same time, data from Goldman’s prime brokerage shows that hedge funds had previously cut their holdings of technology hardware and chip stocks in a sustained manner, and their fund exposure to AI-related stocks has also fallen to a yearly low.

This indicates that what the market is truly concerned about is no longer whether “AI has a future,” but when AI investment can be converted into profits.

In recent years, tech giants have continuously increased spending on data centers, chips, and computing infrastructure. Beyond accounting debt, some companies also bear capital costs through partnerships, project financing, and long-term leases. The “implicit debt” mentioned in the image is, in essence, capital expenditures that have not disappeared—they have simply been broken down into different financing structures. Related data shows that in recent years, the debt scale of Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle has grown significantly, and the AI race is gradually evolving from a competition over cash flow into a competition over financing capacity.

So, you can’t simply interpret the chip-stock rebound as the market restarting. After the semiconductor sector’s rapid decline, a bargain-hunting rebound after being oversold is perfectly normal. What truly determines the direction of the next phase is still the upcoming earnings reports from the tech giants.

The market will focus on three questions: whether AI business revenue can cover the ever-expanding capital expenditures, whether cloud computing demand can keep growing, and whether management continues to raise data center investment. If profit growth can’t keep pace with spending growth, the high level of short positioning could turn into further downward pressure; but if earnings show that AI has started generating real cash flow, crowded shorts could also flip and become fuel for a short squeeze.

The current US stock market is not simply taking a bullish or bearish stance—it is re-pricing AI. The rebound in chip stocks is only the opening act; the real answer will have to wait for tech giants to hand over the numbers. #夏日创作营 @Gate 广场