$63 HYPE—are you in fear or greed?

First, the surface: it pulled back, but it didn’t break down.

On June 16, it just set a new all-time high at $76.8, and now it’s fallen back to around $63, down 18%. In 7 days, it’s down 6.89%, and for the month it’s down 10.81%—sounds scary? But in 6 months it’s up 198%, and from the start of the year it’s up 146%. Market cap is $15.9 billion, firmly in the top ten across the entire market.

$58-60 is strong support from the 100-day EMA—today it just reclaimed and bounced.

First thing: $283 million buyback, directly burning the token.

On July 3, Hyperliquid executed a $283 million repurchase—this is the largest single buyback in the crypto industry since 2026.

The platform takes 97%-99% of trading fees and uses it to buy HYPE in the open market, then immediately destroys it.

Cumulatively, it has already repurchased over $1.1 billion, and burned over 44 million tokens.

The annualized deflation rate is about 7%, which is 4.6x Ethereum’s burn rate and 5.8x BNB’s.

Second thing: ETF inflows keep coming in—institutions buy, retail panics.

Three firms—Bitwise, 21Shares, and Grayscale—have already listed HYPE spot ETFs. As of the week of July 13, the HYPE spot ETF had net inflows of $10.36 million, and cumulative net inflows have reached $309 million.

Even more extreme: the HYPE spot ETF has never had a day with net outflows.

Third thing: HIP-4 just went live, and a whale immediately staked $15.5 million.

On July 20, Hyperliquid announced the HIP-4 upgrade—anyone can permissionlessly deploy prediction markets, but it requires staking 500k HYPE (worth more than $500k). This effectively turns HYPE into a “ticket for prediction markets.”

The very next day after the news—July 21—a whale with cumulative profits of $2.37 million staked 249k HYPE, worth about $15.5 million.

Bull vs bear—judge for yourself.

On one side:

$283 million single buyback, cumulative buybacks over $1.1 billion, annualized deflation of 7%

HYPE spot ETF keeps net inflows, and never has a single-day outflow

HIP-4 goes live, the prediction market track opens up, and whales immediately stake $15.5 million

Seasonal trading volume $633 billion, accounting for 60%-80% of on-chain perpetual contract share

Strong support holds at $58-60, and technical bounce signals appear

On the other side:

A pullback of 18% from $76.8—short-term trapped capital needs digestion

There were token unlock pressures in July

Broader market risk-off mood, with BTC ranging around $63k

$63-65 is near-term resistance—if it can’t break, it may keep ranging

Key levels:

Top resistance: $63-65 → $68-72 → $76-78 (previous high)

Bottom support: $58-60 (100-day EMA + strong support) → $53-55

For short-term traders:

Try long lightly around $63, stop loss at $58.5, target $68-72. If it breaks $65 with volume, add more.

For swing traders:

Buy in 2-3 batches at $58-60, stop at $57, target the $76-78 previous high; if it breaks, look for 100+. Don’t go all-in—wait for a volume-confirmed break above $65-68.

For long-term believers:

Set up buys below $60 and keep averaging in with your eyes closed. HYPE is one of the few scarce assets in 2025-2026 that combines “real revenue + token deflation.” Protocol revenue is there, buybacks are there, ETFs are there—so when it pulls back, it’s basically free money.

Right now, HYPE is the classic example of “fundamentals exploding, price discounted”—

99% of people see an 18% pullback and think “it’s over,” but they don’t see the $283 million buyback, they don’t see the ETF with zero outflow days, and they don’t see the whale just staking $15.5 million.

On the day $65 breaks, you’ll realize:

It’s not that HYPE isn’t good—it’s that you keep cutting losses at the lowest point of each pullback. #GUSD年化升至3.8% #VIP专享4%年化理财 #夏日创作营 $BTC $ETH $HYPE