BTC reclaims the $65k level as bulls and bears prepare for a decisive battle

BTC successfully holds above the $65k mark, currently trading around $65,200. The 24-hour increase is about 1.6%. After briefly topping out at $65,800 in the early morning, it pulled back slightly.
ETH follows up to around the $1,900 area. SOL is up more than 2.5%, and major coins overall move in sync higher.
Nearly a month later, Bitcoin has once again moved back above the $65k level. The last time it was at this spot was July 1, when it crashed to $57,737. This time, the balance of power between bulls and bears has shown a subtle shift. What’s different from previous rallies?
The biggest variable is the liquidity/capital flow. Over the past nearly 7 trading days, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a total net inflow of about $1.2 billion, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for nearly half. Unlike earlier rebounds driven mainly by retail sentiment, this buying pressure comes more from asset management institutions and long-term funds such as pension money.
CryptoQuant data shows that large wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have accumulated an additional about 66,700 BTC over the past 60 days, marking the strongest accumulation pace since February. Institutions are buying, and whales are hoarding. At the same time, BTC has reclaimed both the 200-week moving average (around $63,300) and the 50-day moving average (around $65,026)—a double key level.
The 200-week moving average is widely seen as the core watershed separating long-term bull and bear markets. Returning above this line is far from trivial. But the contradiction is also clear: the technical picture still has vulnerabilities. The $65,000–$65.1k range lines up with the 50-day moving average area, which may trigger programmed sell-offs and profit-taking. The $63k–$65,000 zone is also a historically high-volume trading area, and potential overhead supply cannot be ignored. The upper Bollinger Band is around $65,865, forming a stubborn short-term resistance. A breakout would likely require sustained volume to confirm.
Sentiment is also mixed. The Fear & Greed Index today has fallen to 25, returning to the “Extreme Fear” zone. Prices are rising while sentiment grows increasingly fearful—this divergence is common in bottom areas, but it contrasts sharply with the bullish signal of large ETF inflows.
From a macro perspective, ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to suppress risk appetite. Oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields rise in tandem, and Bitcoin above $65,000 is not yet firmly stable.
What to do next?
AIX assessment: On the 1H timeframe, EMA alignment is bullish, ADX is steadily rebounding, and the market environment switch is already on. However, on the 15-minute timeframe, volume has slightly cooled off, RSI is neutral, and short-term momentum is slowing.
Pullback to go long (preferred): If BTC retraces to the $64,300–$64,500 range (around the 4H EMA20), and you observe a 15-minute down-volume consolidation/turning-stable signal, you can take a small long position. Stop-loss: $63,500. Targets: $66,000–$66,500. Risk-reward is about 2:1.
Breakout chase long: If BTC breaks out with volume above $65,800–$66,000 (Bollinger upper band area) and the 15-minute close confirms it holds, you can chase with a small long. Stop-loss: $65,000. Targets: $67,000–$67,500. Risk-reward is about 2:1.
No short for now: The 1H trend is upward, and price is above key moving averages. Shorting against the trend doesn’t match the current strategy direction.
$65,000 is the line in the sand. Since this rebound began, it has been the third time testing $65,000; the first two times were pushed back. This time, sustained institutional inflows and on-chain accumulation provide different support. But potential sell pressure in the high-volume zone remains a factor you can’t ignore.
$65,000 is the watershed: hold it and look toward $67,000; if it can’t hold, pull back to $64,000, then rebuild momentum.
AIX is currently in cash/no position, waiting for confirmation of a pullback or confirmation of a breakout before acting.