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The Iran-Iraq standoff has fallen into a “no war, no peace” stalemate, with both sides believing they have the upper hand.

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ME News, April 26 (UTC+8): The temporary pause in U.S.-Iran peace talks has placed both sides in a delicate state of “neither war nor peace.” Both Iran and the U.S. are confident they can endure under military and economic pressure: Iran believes it can withstand the economic shocks caused by war, while the Trump administration thinks Iran can be weakened through measures such as a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Although a ceasefire is in place for now, the lack of a permanent agreement keeps the situation unstable. Iranian former officials and conservative media say the current state resembles the continuation of the short-term clash between Iran and the U.S. last June, with no guarantee of peace. While both sides are avoiding the full costs of a major war, they continue to rely on threats of force—an approach that may carry more risk than a short-term conflict. Ceasefire negotiations facilitated by Pakistan are moving slowly; the global economy, especially the oil supply, faces pressure, and a prolonged stalemate creates uncertainty for Middle East stability. According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the Polymarket platform, the probability of the U.S. and Iran reaching a permanent peace was only 2%, while the probabilities of a return to war and a ceasefire are 32% and 48%, respectively. (Source: MLion)
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