94% of traders now agree the Fed will hold rates steady this month. That kind of consensus is exactly when markets get surprised.

Prediction markets are pricing a Fed rate hold at close to 94% odds right now, and that near-unanimous confidence has helped lift the overall mood around Bitcoin.
The problem with a number that high isn't that it's wrong. It's that the markets priced in almost no room for a different outcome. When everyone already agrees, there's very little cushion left if reality doesn't cooperate.
This isn't a reason to bet against the consensus. It's a reason to notice how much of the current optimism is actually riding on one single assumption holding up.