Technical Outlook: ETH Reclaims Short-Term EMAs, but Major Resistance Still Defines the Broader Trend

Ethereum (ETH) is extending its recovery after defending the $1,865–$1,890 demand zone. Price has successfully reclaimed both the 20 EMA and 50 EMA, while RSI has climbed well above the neutral level, signaling strengthening bullish momentum. However, ETH continues to trade below the 100 EMA and 200 EMA, indicating the higher-timeframe trend remains bearish despite the improving short-term structure.

📈 EMA Structure (Short-Term Bullish Recovery)

20 EMA: $1,821

50 EMA: $1,823

100 EMA: $1,938

200 EMA: $2,198

ETH is now trading comfortably above both the 20 EMA and 50 EMA, confirming improving short-term buying momentum.

The 100 EMA ($1,938) is the next major resistance and remains the key level for confirming a broader trend reversal.

The 200 EMA ($2,198) continues to act as strong higher-timeframe resistance.

👉 The short-term structure favors buyers, but the macro trend remains bearish until ETH establishes sustained price action above the 100 EMA.

📐 Fibonacci & Market Structure

ETH remains below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $2,299, confirming the higher-timeframe downtrend is still intact.

Buyers continue defending the $1,865–$1,890 demand zone, creating a potential higher-low structure.

Price has broken above a short-term consolidation range and is now approaching a local resistance cluster around $1,905–$1,918, where sellers may attempt to regain control.

Bullish Targets:

$1,918

$1,938 (100 EMA)

$2,000

$2,198 (200 EMA)

Bearish Scenario:

Losing $1,890 would weaken the current recovery structure.

A breakdown below $1,865 would invalidate the bullish setup and increase the probability of revisiting the recent swing lows.

🧠 ICT / Smart Money View

ETH has reclaimed nearby buy-side liquidity after sweeping the June lows.

Price has produced a short-term Market Structure Shift (MSS) and is trading above a nearby Fair Value Gap (FVG), reflecting improving order flow.

However, a larger Order Block (OB) sits just below the 100 EMA, making the $1,930–$1,950 region an important resistance zone.

A confirmed daily close above the 100 EMA ($1,938) would significantly strengthen the bullish outlook.

📉 RSI Momentum

RSI (14): 63.50

RSI is holding well above the 50 level and approaching bullish territory, indicating buyers currently control momentum.

A move above 70 would confirm strong bullish continuation, while a drop back below 50 would signal weakening momentum.

📊 Key Levels

🔴 Resistance

$1,918

$1,938 (100 EMA)

$2,000

$2,198 (200 EMA)

🟢 Support

$1,890

$1,865

$1,848 (Major demand zone)

📌 Final Outlook

Ethereum continues to strengthen after reclaiming both the 20 EMA and 50 EMA, while RSI remains firmly above 60, reflecting improving bullish momentum. Even so, the broader trend has not yet shifted bullish, with the 100 EMA still acting as the key barrier.

✅ Holding above $1,890 keeps the short-term recovery intact.

✅ A breakout and daily close above $1,938 could accelerate upside toward $2,000–$2,200, with the 200 EMA ($2,198) becoming the next major objective.

❌ Losing $1,865 would shift momentum back in favor of sellers and expose the recent swing lows.

Overall Bias: Neutral to Bullish (Short Term). ETH is building a relief rally from a strong demand zone, but confirmation of a higher-timeframe bullish reversal requires a decisive breakout and sustained hold above the 100 EMA ($1,938) and the nearby resistance cluster.
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