The Federal Reserve has officially entered its quiet period ahead of policy decisions, and liquidity expectations are entering a pure data vacuum game

The market has officially entered the quiet period before the July 18–July 30 FOMC meeting. Under Federal Reserve rules, all policy officials must fully go silent during this time; they will no longer make public remarks to guide market expectations regarding economic trends or monetary policy. The market has completely moved on from the previous phase of “trading expectations based on officials’ comments.” Going forward, asset pricing will be determined entirely by U.S. economic data and U.S. stock company earnings reports through their own independent game-making, with any message-driven intervention effectively eliminated.

Based on the latest dot plot from the June policy meeting, the Fed has reserved only one rate-cut window for the full year, with the rate-cut magnitude locked at 25 basis points. Keeping high interest rates for a longer period has already become the core policy tone. Combined with the ongoing escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—international oil prices holding above the $85 level—energy-driven imported inflation has surged again, directly further compressing the Fed’s operational room to deliver easing in the second half of the year. Currently, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has rebounded to around 4.6%, and the U.S. dollar index has also consistently maintained strong resilience. As for Bitcoin, as a high-volatility risk asset priced in USD with no fixed interest yield, the opportunity cost of holding it rises sharply in an environment of elevated U.S. Treasury yields, and it continues to face significant valuation-level downward pressure.

Revisiting the pattern of this round of market action makes the core contradiction clear: before rate-cut expectations truly materialize and liquidity becomes substantively looser, it is difficult for the crypto market to sustain a one-way bull market with continued momentum. Every rebound seen on the screen at this stage is, in essence, only a passive technical correction caused by the concentrated closing of short positions, with no incremental “outside” fresh funds actively stepping in to lay out positions. This is the underlying reason why, after Bitcoin repeatedly spikes to test pressure levels, it quickly faces pressure, pulls back, and then gets stuck in a tug-of-war of repeated consolidation and range trading.

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