I. Core situation: From “all-out momentum” to a “Senate stalemate”

The legislative process for the CLARITY Act (“Digital Asset Market Clarity Act”) has taken a dramatic turn:

· Passed in the House by a wide margin (July 2025): passed by a vote of 294-134, earning support from 78 Democratic members that crossed party lines—marking the strongest cross-party support for digital-asset legislation by the U.S. Congress to date.
· Senate committee advancement (2026): in January and May, the Senate Agriculture Committee and the Senate Banking Committee passed the bill, respectively. The Banking Committee vote result was 15-9.
· Full-chamber vote tabled (to date): since the bill was placed on the Senate legislative calendar on June 1, it has failed to be scheduled for a full-chamber vote for an extended period due to controversy over its ethics provisions.

Currently, prediction markets such as Polymarket show its probability of passage in 2026 has fallen to 32%-40%, the lowest in history. With the August congressional recess approaching, the legislative window is closing fast.

II. Root cause of the bottleneck: Not a party fight, but a fight over “ethics provisions”

The bill’s stagnation is not simply a two-party standoff, but a fierce struggle over where lawmakers’ moral boundaries lie.

· Core dispute: Democrats want to add binding provisions prohibiting the president, members of Congress, and other top officials—as well as their family members—from profiting from digital-asset activity during their terms. Republicans argue that moral standards should not be part of a market-structure legislative package.
· Escalation of controversy: former President Trump disclosed that his digital-asset-related income exceeded $1.4 billion, giving Democrats strong ammunition.
· Vote-count deadlock: Republicans hold only 53 seats in the Senate, requiring at least 7 Democrats to defect to reach the 60-vote threshold. And Democrats have made clear they will tie their support to the ethics provisions.

III. The cost of delay: From “political headlines” to a compliance crisis

The bill’s prolonged shelving has morphed into a concrete corporate governance and compliance crisis.

· “Regulatory vacuum”: companies cannot determine whether digital assets fall under SEC (securities) or CFTC (commodities) jurisdiction, preventing a compliance framework from being established.
· Enforcement risk: the classification issue can only be resolved through lawsuits by regulatory agencies or a change in government, pushing uncertainty back onto the industry.
· Secondary opposition: the National Association of State Prosecutors said that Section 604 of the bill would provide protections for non-custodial software developers, which would severely damage criminal investigations related to cryptocurrencies.

IV. Core contents of the bill and potential impact

If ultimately passed, the bill would bring far-reaching changes:

· Clarify regulatory boundaries: grant the CFTC jurisdiction over “digital commodities,” limiting SEC involvement to assets that are more akin to securities.
· Protect client assets: require intermediaries to treat customers’ cash and digital assets as customers’ property, segregated from company assets. Senator Lummis stressed that this can prevent a repeat of the incident in which, during Celsius’s bankruptcy, customers’ deposits were treated as company property.
· Drive market segmentation: Bitcoin has been classified as a commodity and does not need the bill; while tokens such as XRP face ongoing classification risk—this year they are down by about 40%.

V. Recent developments and outlook (as of July 21, 2026)

· White House involvement: On July 15, the White House met with senators to discuss a compromise plan over the ethics provisions.
· Squeezed schedule: the Senate Majority Leader plans to prioritize the National Defense Authorization Act, and CLARITY’s vote may be delayed to the week of July 20 or July 27.
· Passage probability: prediction-market odds continue to fall, but Kalshi’s prediction market shows the probability of a vote before the recess rising to 75.1%.

Summary: The fate of the CLARITY Act has shifted from a purely industry-regulation issue into a complex contest over political ethics, executive power, and the future of markets. Its final outcome will not only reshape the U.S. digital-asset landscape, but may also define the boundary where crypto and traditional finance will integrate over the coming years.#夏日创作营