Daily Morning Session Forecast | 2026.07.21 07:50

Yesterday’s Recap
After BTC held 64,280 and broke above 65,000, it peaked at 65,796. The judgment that price would consolidate around the 64,500 midpoint and then test resistance played out; however, it has not yet firmly held above 65,600. ETH held 1,850 and broke above 1,880, peaking at 1,918. The judgment that 1,900 would be tested also played out. After BTC and ETH moved up in sync, altcoins gained some room for a local rebound; not chasing a sudden surge remains effective.
Overall Outlook for Today
As of 07:50 Beijing time, BTC is around $65,197, up 0.75% in 24 hours, with a range of 63,734~65,796. ETH is around $1,901, up 1.53% in 24 hours, with a range of 1,843~1,918. Both are still relatively strong on the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts. ETH’s intraday elasticity remains higher than BTC’s, but current trading volume is insufficient to confirm a full breakout. Today’s overall outlook is a bullish bias with high-level consolidation during a repair phase. Altcoins can watch for structural rotation, but chasing higher still requires restraint.
BTC
BTC is around $65,197. The 1-hour close is above the EMA20 at about 64,963, the 20-hour moving average at about 64,795, and the 50-hour moving average at about 64,701. The MACD histogram remains positive, suggesting short-term structure is bullish; but current volume is only about 0.17x of the average volume over the past 20 periods, so the breakout confirmation when pushing higher is lacking. The 4-hour close is above the EMA20 at about 64,658, the 20-period moving average at about 64,572, and the 50-period moving average at about 64,120. MACD momentum is positive, and the repair structure continues. On the daily chart, price is still above the EMA20 at about 63,792 and the 20-day moving average at about 63,515; however, the weekly chart remains below the key moving averages, so a medium-term reversal has not been confirmed yet.
Short-term support is at 64,800~65,000, with stronger support at 64,280~64,550. Short-term resistance is at 65,600~65,800, with stronger resistance at 66,000~66,500. Today’s key pivot level is 65,000: only if it holds and breaks above 65,800 with volume can there be a chance to continue testing 66,000~66,500. If it falls below 64,800, it may retest 64,550. In terms of action, do not chase low-liquidity pumps; prioritize waiting for consolidation and acceptance near 65,000, or for a confirmed pullback after a breakout.
ETH
ETH is around $1,901. The 1-hour close is above the EMA20 at about 1,888, the 20-hour moving average at about 1,882, and the 50-hour moving average at about 1,874. The MACD histogram is positive, so the short-term trend is still slightly bullish; but the latest hour has pulled back from around 1,918, and volume is about 0.22x of the average volume over the past 20 periods—so the resistance area needs to be digested. The 4-hour close is above the EMA20 at about 1,875, the 20-period moving average at about 1,867, and the 50-period moving average at about 1,855. MACD momentum keeps strengthening. The daily chart is also above the EMA20 at about 1,811 and the 20-day moving average at about 1,801, but the weekly chart is still in a range; medium-term overhead pressure has not been lifted.
Short-term support is at 1,880~1,890, with stronger support at 1,845~1,865. Short-term resistance is at 1,918~1,930, with stronger resistance at 1,945~1,980. Today’s key pivot level is 1,880: only if it holds and breaks above 1,930 with volume can there be a chance to continue testing 1,945~1,980. If it falls below 1,880, the priority is to watch for acceptance around 1,865. In terms of action, wait for resistance-break confirmation; do not continuously chase above 1,900.
Altcoin Correlation Outlook
If BTC holds 65,000 and breaks above 65,800, and ETH simultaneously holds above 1,930, altcoins will have more reliable room for broader expansion. If BTC breaks below 64,800, altcoins should prioritize defense first. Currently, ETH is relatively stronger than BTC, which supports altcoin sentiment, but both have relatively low volume—rotation is more likely to concentrate in strong narratives rather than being interpreted as a full-blown broad-based rally.
Public Trading Principles
Do not chase higher; prioritize waiting for key support and signs of stabilization. If it breaks a pivot level, reduce exposure and defend; only after it reclaims key resistance and shows volume-price confirmation should you consider that the repair phase may continue. Control the frequency of trial-and-error; fully observe pool positions and single-coin strategies—subscribe to the quick report or check the group document for details.
Risk Warning
The above content is only a market scenario analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset prices are extremely volatile—manage position size and stop-losses carefully. As of 07:50 Beijing time on July 21, 2026, prices may change afterwards.