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The U.S. and Iran are stuck in a “no war, no peace” deadlock, with both sides believing they have the upper hand

MeNews
ME News, April 26 (UTC+8): The temporary suspension of peace talks between the US and Iran places both sides in a delicate state of “no war, no peace.” Both Iran and the United States are confident they can endure under military and economic pressure. Iran believes it can withstand the economic shocks caused by war, while the Trump administration thinks it can weaken Iran through measures such as blockading the Strait of Hormuz. Although there is currently a ceasefire, the lack of a permanent agreement keeps the situation unstable. Iranian former officials and conservative media say the current situation resembles the continuation of last June’s short-term conflict between Iran and the US, with no guarantee of peace. While both sides avoid the costs of a full-scale war, they continue to rely on threats of force, which may be more risky than a short-term conflict. Progress in the ceasefire talks brokered by Pakistan has been slow; the global economy, especially oil supply, is under pressure. The ongoing deadlock creates uncertainty for stability in the Middle East. According to monitoring by PolyBeats, on the Polymarket platform, the probability that the US and Iran reach permanent peace is only 2%, while the probabilities of the two outcomes are 32% and 48%, respectively. (Source: MLion)
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