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The U.S. and Iran are stuck in a stalemate of “neither war nor peace,” with both sides believing they hold the upper hand in the situation.

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ME News message: On April 26 (UTC+8), the temporary suspension of U.S.-Iran peace talks puts both sides into a delicate “neither war nor peace” state. Both Iran and the United States are confident they can endure under military and economic pressure: Iran believes it can withstand the economic shocks brought by war, while the Trump administration believes Iran can be weakened through measures such as a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Although there is a ceasefire for now, the lack of a permanent agreement keeps the situation unstable. Iranian former officials and conservative media say the current situation is like a continuation of last June’s short-term conflict between Iran and the other side, with no assurance of peace. While both sides avoid the costs of a full-scale war, they continue to rely on threats of force, which may be more risky than a short-term conflict. Ceasefire negotiations mediated by Pakistan are progressing slowly; the global economy, especially the oil supply, is facing pressure, and the continued stalemate creates uncertainty for stability in the Middle East. According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the Polymarket platform, the probability of the U.S. and Iran reaching permanent peace is only 2%, while the probabilities of “to” and “and” are 32% and 48%, respectively. (Source: MLion)
POLYMARKET-25.25%
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