Bernstein raises Robinhood’s target price to $160! Expects Q2 forecasts to see market revenue surpass crypto for the first time

Well-known Wall Street investment bank Bernstein has released its latest report, raising Robinhood (HOOD)’s target price from $130 to $160 and maintaining an “Outperform” rating. Analysts said Robinhood’s prediction market business is entering explosive growth, with estimated revenue in the second quarter of 2026 reaching $150 million—its first time ever surpassing its cryptocurrency business. Although short-term crypto trading volumes have cooled, its massive user base and multi-asset strategy still build a strong moat.
(Background: UNI burning is accelerating! Uniswap chain voting is underway: v4 fee expansion, and Robinhood Chain added to the fee map)
(Additional context: the meme coin CASHCAT’s market cap once broke $200 million! Up more than 20% in 24 hours, and sitting tight as the #1 on Robinhood Chain)

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• Prediction markets become the strongest engine; Q2 revenue estimate at $150 million
• Crypto business faces cyclical headwinds; trims near-term financial guidance
• 27 million accounts create a moat; Robinhood Chain’s potential emerges

As retail investors’ trading behavior undergoes a generational shift, U.S. online brokerage giant Robinhood is successfully moving into a new arena and showing impressive potential. On July 20, 2026 (Taipei time), Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani released its latest research report, announcing a strong increase in Robinhood’s target price from $130 to $160, while keeping an “Outperform” investment rating.

In the report, Bernstein emphasized that Robinhood is currently one of the best-positioned companies in the market, and is well positioned to capture a massive opportunity with a total addressable market size of more than $70 billion. This blue-ocean market includes prediction markets, perpetual futures, tokenized stocks, and also emerging computing-linked contracts.

Prediction markets become the strongest engine; Q2 revenue estimate at $150 million

The most eye-catching highlight of this report is the analysts’ extremely bullish view of Robinhood’s prediction market business. Data shows that Robinhood, through its partnership with Susquehanna and the exchange “Rothera,” which received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has processed more than 3.5 billion contracts since launching in late May. Notably, markets related to the FIFA World Cup alone account for as much as 93% of the staggering trading volume.

With such strong momentum, Rothera jumped to become the world’s fourth-largest prediction platform within just one month of its launch, contributing 16% of Robinhood’s total event contract volume (the remainder was routed to Kalshi). Bernstein estimates that the second quarter of 2026 will be a historic turning point: Robinhood’s prediction market revenue is expected to rise from $104 million in the first quarter to $150 million, and for the first time surpass its cryptocurrency business revenue. Looking ahead, analysts expect the segment to surge at a 64% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), reaching a scale of $1.7 billion by 2028.

Crypto business faces cyclical headwinds; trims short-term financial guidance

Compared with the heated prediction markets, Robinhood’s cryptocurrency business is facing short-term headwinds. Because total crypto industry trading volume in the first half of this year is below expectations, Bernstein sharply cut its estimate for Robinhood’s 2026 crypto trading revenue by 49%, and expects crypto revenue in the second quarter to decline quarter-over-quarter by about 38%.

As a result, Bernstein also lowered its overall financial forecasts for Robinhood in 2026: total revenue estimates were cut 10% to $5.3 billion, adjusted EBITDA was cut 19% to $2.8 billion, and earnings per share (EPS) was reduced from $2.65 to $2.05. However, analysts specifically emphasized that this weakness in the crypto market is merely “cyclical rather than structural,” and any rebound in the Bitcoin price in the future will create additional upside room (not yet included in the financial model).

27 million accounts create a moat; Robinhood Chain’s potential emerges

Despite short-term volatility, Bernstein remains highly confident in Robinhood’s long-term valuation. Analysts pointed out that in financial technology, new trading products are extremely easy to be commoditized; the real deciding factor lies in “customer acquisition” capability. Robinhood currently has as many as 27 million funded accounts and 14 million monthly active users, and this “Distribution as the Moat” enables it to continuously roll out new products with near-zero marginal cost advantage.

In addition, Robinhood’s “Robinhood Chain,” built on Arbitrum Layer 2 technology, is also showing strong potential. Currently, the chain has locked more than $400 million in total value locked (TVL), with annualized DEX trading volume of about $200 billion, and generating about $50 million in annualized on-chain fees. Bernstein predicts that by 2027, prediction markets, perpetual futures, and Robinhood Chain combined will contribute 18% of the company’s total revenue, and will further rise to 23% in 2028. Based on these long-term catalysts, Bernstein moved its valuation benchmark to 2028 and issued a target EPS of $4.56, maintaining a 35x one-year forward P/E ratio—showing strong conviction in this brokerage giant’s transformation.