Market forecasts indicate that the likelihood of US-Iran diplomatic talks has dropped significantly.

ME News reported on April 27 (UTC+8) that based on prediction market data, in the event “US and Iran diplomatic meeting in…?”, the “Yes” option for “US-Iran diplomatic talks to be held before April 29, 2026” saw its trade probability fall from 72.5% to 12.5%, dropping by 60.0 percentage points in a single day.
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