Polymarket traders lost more than $37 million at the end of the 2026 World Cup - ForkLog

# Polymarket traders lost more than $37 million at the end of the 2026 World Cup

The World Cup winner market raised $4.25 billion — a record high for a single event in the platform’s history

Bets on the World Cup winner resulted in a loss for 66.7% of addresses on the prediction platform Polymarket. On-chain analyst defioasis.eth shared these figures.

The World Cup is over—congratulations again to Spain. Don’t know which of you managed to place the winning bet

In the Polymarket prediction market for the World Cup champion, among more than 194 thousand independent trading addresses

In terms of losses:
— Nearly 130 thousand addresses predicted incorrectly, with losses accounting for about 66.7%
— Most participants didn’t lose by much; 114 thousand addresses lost within $100, with average losses of less than 10… pic.twitter.com/z3kKImxnlZ

— defioasis.eth (@defioasis) July 20, 2026

In total, the expert analyzed more than 194k wallets—about 130k saw losses. The distribution of profits and losses turned out to be uneven:

• only five accounts had results above $1 million;
• 114k addresses lost less than $100 each, averaging about $10;
• 43 addresses lost more than $100,000 each, totaling over $15 million;
• a third of participants made a profit, but for most it didn’t exceed $100—the average was below $5;
• 54 addresses earned more than $100,000 each, totaling over $22 million;

“Global events like the World Cup attract huge trading volumes and liquidity. But in the end, the lion’s share of profits is taken by only a few traders with stronger information advantages and risk management,” defioasis.eth noted.

The final shattered Argentina’s main “bull”

The last World Cup-2026 match took place in New Jersey (USA) on July 19. Spain beat Argentina 1-0.

Before the match, Polymarket traders priced Spain’s chances at about 58%, and Argentina’s at 42%. The odds matched those from the platform’s main competitor, Kalshi, as well as from traditional bookmakers.

The defeat of the reigning champions wiped out the positions of their supporters. The largest of them—a trader under the nickname gud.hl—lost his entire deposit of $1.23 million. He bought contracts for Argentina’s title in 28 trades, paying more than $30,000 in commissions.

Spain dominated Argentina the whole match and ultimately won the World Cup in extra time 1-0

Polymarket’s biggest long on Argentina, gud.hl, even had a floating profit of more than $5 million at one point

But in the end its losses totaled its entire $1.23 million principal https://t.co/BezRFPyIPW pic.twitter.com/eeVjeBxZ2N

— defioasis.eth (@defioasis) July 20, 2026

According to defioasis.eth, at the time the position’s unrealized profit exceeded $5 million, but the trader didn’t lock it in.

Draws destroyed the favorites throughout the tournament

The biggest losses at the World Cup were tied to draws. A trader using the pseudonym coldsway lost $11.6 million over ten days: out of his 15 positions, only four came through. The largest failure was a $4.9 million bet on July 4 that Morocco would not win the match.

This guy lost $11.6M betting on the #WorldCup in just 10 days!

He placed 15 bets, lost 11 of them, and had a win rate of only 26.7%.

His biggest single loss was nearly $5M.https://t.co/dAWZWdoPxp pic.twitter.com/AIX0PGWbLj

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) July 6, 2026

In June, the FlickRaw account lost about $4.2 million in less than a day. First, he put $2.7 million on the Netherlands beating Japan—the match ended 2-2. The next day, the trader wagered $1.5 million on Belgium’s win over Egypt—again, it ended in a draw.

8\ ⚽️ FlickRaw’s 24h

FlickRaw lost $4.2M in under 24 hours.

$2.7M on Netherlands over Japan was erased by an 88th-minute equalizer.

Then $1.5M on Belgium over Egypt was erased the next day by another draw. pic.twitter.com/OkQboFcm5y

— Sherif (@SherifDefi) July 19, 2026

User betoor619 placed nearly $1 million on Spain to beat Cabo Verde at a 92% probability—for potential $85,000 in profit. A 0-0 draw wiped out his investment.

Who profited from the World Cup

The main gains came from counter-positions against the favorites. The fishalive wallet turned about $400,000 into nearly $9 million on Spain vs. Cabo Verde. It held contracts for “Spain will not win” and spread +2.5 on the African team.

🚨BREAKING: Someone named “fishalive” put $400k on Spain NOT to win vs Cabo Verde at 9% odds…

This trade just cashed out $4,702,769.23 on Polymarket pic.twitter.com/Kvp6RsoQJO

— Polymarket Sports (@PolymarketSport) June 15, 2026

According to Lookonchain, another trader earned $9.24 million in a single day by guessing all four outcomes. The biggest position was $7.03 million on the bet that Iran would not beat New Zealand. The match finished 2-2.

What an incredible #WorldCup bettor!

He made $9.24M in a single day, winning all 4 of his bets for a 100% win rate.

In the Iran vs. New Zealand match, he spent $7.03M betting that Iran would not win.

He was right — and made $7.34M from that bet alone!https://t.co/4hPgrIgYui pic.twitter.com/cpdU6II4zb

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) June 17, 2026

Polymarket records

The 2026 World Cup winner market raised $4.25 billion—an all-time high for a single event in Polymarket’s history. Previously, the record belonged to the 2024 US presidential elections—$3.6 billion.

The 2026 World Cup winner market. Source: Polymarket. In June, the platform’s trading volume reached $10.8 billion, also setting a new all-time high. At the same time, Kalshi’s figure was $33 billion. In total, over the past months, turnover across prediction markets exceeded $50 billion.

For the first half of July, Polymarket processed trades worth $5.8 billion, and Kalshi — $25.3 billion.

Monthly trading volumes on Polymarket, Polymarket US, and Kalshi. Source: The Block. Recall that in July, researchers from Stanford University and Singapore Management University found signs of manipulation in the calculation of five-minute Bitcoin contracts on Polymarket.