Many people see that real-world events have already ended, and the market headlines are crystal clear, even with prices showing close to 0 or 1, and they assume the Polymarket market has already reached final settlement.

In fact, these signals alone cannot prove that the market has been conclusively settled. Headlines only describe the question, and displayed prices are only a reflection of the current market.
My screening gate only allows one line: pass these six questions first. If any item can’t be clarified, skip this market.
1. What exactly does the Rules ask.
The headline only describes the question; the Rules determine how settlement is done. The official Rules clearly specify the resolution source, end date, and edge cases. Many people look only at the headline and think the outcome is already fixed; but the Rules may still require extra confirmation of certain boundary conditions.
2. What is the specified resolution source.
The market will explicitly state which source will be used to determine the final outcome. Only the specified source can be used; you can’t substitute it with other news reports, social media posts, or third-party summaries. Even if other places have already said the result is out everywhere, you still need to confirm whether the specified source has officially output it.
3. What are the cutoff time, time zone, and end conditions.
The end date is only the time point when the market becomes eligible to submit settlement; it doesn’t mean final settlement has already happened. The specific cutoff, time zone, and end conditions follow the Rules of that market. The final status also depends on the subsequent proposal, challenge, and finalization process.
4. How are exceptions handled, such as cancellation, delay, ties, data revisions, etc.
The Rules usually specify in advance how these cases are handled. Clarifications can only be added without changing the basic intent of the question. If exceptions occur, you must judge strictly according to how the Rules state it.
5. Is it currently proposal, 2-hour challenge, reproposal, DVM vote, or already UMA finalized.
Don’t treat the 2-hour window as a universal final settlement duration for all markets. Different markets may be in the proposal stage, the challenge window, the reproposal stage, DVM voting, or may already be UMA finalized. You need to assess the actual status to see how far it is from the final result.
6. How much true tradeable depth is behind the displayed price.
The displayed price is usually the bid-ask midpoint. When the bid-ask spread is very large, the platform sometimes shows the last trade. In real trading, if you want to buy immediately, look at the ask; if you want to sell immediately, look at the bid. For large orders, you also need to check the actual depth on the order book. Just looking at one number makes it easy to misjudge liquidity.
After checking these six items, if any one hasn’t been verified clearly, don’t treat the market as already decided, and don’t make a judgment based on it.
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