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#夏日创作营 Gold falls below $4,000! As tensions between the US and Iran escalate, why does safe-haven gold decline instead? Where will the key battle between bulls and bears lie for gold next? Analysis of today’s gold price action
Has the gold rally truly ended after it fell below $4,000? On Monday (July 20) during the Asian trading session, spot gold remained under pressure, dipping below the $4,000 psychological level at one point, with a low around $3,982.
Earlier, the market widely believed that the escalation of the US-Iran conflict would drive safe-haven capital into gold, but the actual price action diverged: Oil prices surged, while gold pulled back.
The reason behind this is the most core contradiction in the current gold market—what the market is trading is not only “safe-haven,” but also the dollar, Federal Reserve policy, and global capital flows.
Why didn’t gold rise despite the escalation of the US-Iran conflict?
Recently, the US-Iran situation has continued to heat up, and the market has worried that energy supply could be affected, causing international oil prices to jump quickly.
Under traditional logic, as geopolitical risk increases, gold as a safe-haven asset should be supported.
But the market does not run according to a single logic. Currently, investors are paying more attention to:
First, the US dollar’s trend.
The US Dollar Index has stayed strong recently. A rising dollar means gold priced in dollars becomes more costly for overseas buyers, which suppresses gold prices.
Second, expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Although the market has largely ruled out a July rate hike, there remains disagreement over the future rate-cut path.
The resilience shown in US economic data, along with some hawkish signals from certain Fed officials, has caused the market to readjust its rate-cut expectations. As a result, with the dollar strengthening and rate expectations still relatively high, gold faces short-term pressure.
Has the gold correction ended?
From a technical perspective, gold has been falling consecutively recently. Last week saw the largest decline in nearly six weeks. With the price now back around $4,000, bulls and bears are starting to battle again.
On the daily chart level:
Gold broke below short-term moving average support, and the Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, indicating the market has entered a sideways consolidation phase.
In the short term, the 4,020–4,040 zone is an important overhead resistance for the current rebound. If the price cannot regain and hold above this area, it suggests the downtrend is still in control for the bears.
Below that: the 3,980–3,960 zone is the key support level the market is focusing on. Especially around 3,960—if there is clear buy-side support, it is not ruled out that gold could see a technical rebound.
How to judge gold’s upside vs downside next?
Gold is currently at a critical stage:
On one hand: a strong dollar and cooled expectations for Fed rate cuts are weighing on gold.
On the other hand: the escalation of geopolitical conflicts means safe-haven demand still exists, limiting how far gold can fall.
Therefore, in the short term, gold is more likely to enter a sideways adjustment phase to find direction.
The market will never have only one direction; what truly matters is understanding the trend and waiting for opportunities.
Gold is currently going through an important round of adjustment, and $4,000 is not just a price point—it is also a key emotional dividing line for the market. If geopolitical risk expands further, gold’s safe-haven appeal may return; if the dollar continues to stay strong, the gold adjustment cycle may extend.
In the next few days, the market will focus on speeches by Fed officials, the dollar’s trend, and changes in the Middle East situation.
Do you think gold can still hold $4,000? Feel free to leave your views in the comments section.$XAUUSD
Has the rally ended for bulls after gold broke below $4,000? On Monday (July 20), during the Asian trading session, spot gold continued to face pressure and at one point fell below the $4,000 psychological level, with a low near $3,982.
Previously, the market broadly believed that an escalation in the US-Iran conflict would drive safe-haven capital into gold, but the actual price action has diverged: Oil prices surged, yet gold retreated.
The reason behind this is the biggest contradiction currently facing the gold market—what the market is trading is not only safe-haven demand, but also the US dollar, Federal Reserve policy, and global capital flows.
US-Iran conflict escalates—why didn’t gold rise?
In recent weeks, the situation between the US and Iran has been heating up, and the market has worried that energy supply could be affected, with international oil prices rising rapidly.
Under the traditional logic, as geopolitical risk increases, gold as a safe-haven asset should receive support.
But the market is not operating according to a single logic. Investors are currently focusing on:
First, the US dollar’s performance.
The US Dollar Index has remained strong recently. A stronger dollar means gold priced in dollars becomes more costly for overseas buyers, which suppresses gold prices.
Second, expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Although the market has basically ruled out the possibility of a July rate hike, there is still disagreement about the path for future rate cuts.
The resilience shown in US economic data, along with some hawkish signals released by certain Federal Reserve officials, has led the market to readjust its rate-cut expectations again. Therefore, with the dollar strengthening and rate expectations still elevated, gold faces near-term pressure.
Has the gold correction ended?
From a technical perspective, gold has been falling consecutively recently. Last week, it recorded its largest drop in nearly six weeks. With the current price back around $4,000, bulls and bears are now in a tug-of-war.
On the daily timeframe:
Gold has broken below short-term moving-average support, and the Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, indicating the market has entered a period of range-bound correction.
In the short term, the 4020-4040 area is an important resistance zone for the current rebound. If the price cannot regain and hold above this range, it suggests that the bearish trend still holds the advantage.
Downside: the 3980-3960 area is the key support the market is watching right now. Especially near 3,960, if there is clear buy-side support, it cannot be ruled out that gold may see a technical rebound.
How should gold’s bullish vs. bearish outlook be judged going forward?
Gold is currently at a critical stage:
On one hand: a strong dollar and cooling Fed rate-cut expectations create pressure on gold.
On the other hand: geopolitical conflict escalation and the market’s ongoing safe-haven demand still exist, limiting how far gold can fall.
So in the near term, gold is more likely to enter a phase of range-bound correction as it searches for direction.
The market will never have only one direction. What really matters is understanding the trend and waiting for opportunities.
Gold is currently undergoing an important adjustment. $4,000 is not just a price level, but also an important sentiment dividing line for the market. If geopolitical risk expands further, gold’s safe-haven attribute may return. If the dollar remains strong, gold’s adjustment cycle could continue.
In the coming days, the market will focus on speeches by Federal Reserve officials, the US dollar’s trend, and changes in the Middle East situation.
Do you think gold can still hold above $4,000? Feel free to leave your views in the comments section.$XAUUSD