ETH worth $1,870—are you going to cut your losses?

First, look at the surface: it’s down 62% from the all-time high of 4,946, and down 36% since the start of the year.

It’s been bouncing between 1,800-1,900, with less than $9 billion in 24-hour volume—low volume, hesitation, fear. The late-June low at 1,500 hasn’t been revisited since.

After ETH bottomed at 1,500 and started to recover, it broke the downward trendline that had been suppressing it for nearly six months— the bottom is in place, and it only needs one big-volume bullish candle to confirm.

First thing: the ETF hellish outflows ended for 8 weeks, and institutions are back.

Over the past two months, spot Ethereum ETFs have been bled dry—8 straight weeks of net outflows. But in the second week of July, the picture changed: net inflow of $84 million in a single week, and last week even reached $105 million.

BlackRock’s ETHA was the standout—pulled in $135 million in one week. On July 14, all 10 Ethereum ETFs recorded positive net inflows. In the first half of July, net inflows for the ETH ETFs had already hit $128 million.

Second thing: whales are accumulating like crazy, while you’re panicking and cutting.

On July 14, four whale addresses cumulatively bought 87,083 ETH within 12 hours, worth $153 million.

In the same period, institutional whales bought 75,000 ETH within 12 hours; total institutional holdings reached 6.1 million ETH, 5.1% of circulating supply, the highest since the March Dencun upgrade.

A new wallet withdrew 50,000 ETH from exchanges.

Net outflows from exchanges have been negative for 8 consecutive days, the longest stretch this year.

Third thing: the Glamsterdam upgrade— the biggest since Merge.

Go live on the mainnet on September 16. The target Gas Limit will be raised from 60 million to 200 million—more than triple.

Two core changes:

ePBS (EIP-7732): fully separates the block proposer and builder, extending the “life-or-death 2-second” window for validators to 9 seconds—L1 throughput is set for a qualitative change.

Block-Level Access Lists (EIP-7928): enables parallel processing of transactions, no longer a slow, single-lane road, with fees potentially dropping by up to 78%.

Bull vs bear—judge for yourself:

On the one side:

ETF ends 8 weeks of net outflows; net inflow was $105 million last week.

Whales accumulated billions of dollars over two weeks; exchange ETH is nearly being emptied.

Glamsterdam upgrade goes live in September, the biggest catalyst since Merge.

Rebounded from 1,500 to 1,870, breaking the 6-month downward trendline.

Fear index at 29—extreme fear often matches a bottom characteristic.

On the other side:

Escalation of the Iran-Iran conflict, macro black swans could hit the market at any time.

Down 36% since the start of the year—the trend hasn’t fully turned yet.

Failed to break 1,900-1,950 three times—huge psychological pressure.

Rebound on shrinking volume; liquidity conditions remain weak.

Key levels

Resistance overhead: 1,900-1,910 → 1,950 → 2,000 (psychological level) → 2,163

Support below: 1,850-1,860 → 1,800 → 1,750-1,780 (strong support)

For short-term traders:

After a pullback to 1,850-1,860 stabilizes, go long with a light position; stop-loss at 1,820; target 1,900-1,920. If it breaks above and holds 1,900 on volume, chase long; stop-loss at 1,870; target 1,950-2,000.

For swing players:

Build positions in batches within 1,750-1,820; stop-loss at 1,720; first target 2,000-2,163; second target 2,500+.

For long-term believers:

DCA with eyes closed below 1,800. ETH fell from 4,946 to 1,500—a 70% drop. Historically, every time ETH drops more than 70%, it becomes a golden pit. By end of 2026, target 3,000-4,000—betting on the Glamsterdam upside + continued ETF inflows + a rate-cut cycle.

ETH right now is like the bear-market bottom at end of 2022—

99% of people think, “This time is different—ETH will go to zero.” The result: it rose 3x in 2023-2024.

On the day 1,900 breaks through, you’ll realize:

It wasn’t that Ethereum is bad— it’s that you cut losses every time at the lowest point. #GUSD年化升至3.8% #GateDEX全面接入RobinhoodChain #夏日创作营 $BTC $ETH $SOL