A roundup of predictions by institutions such as Standard Chartered, Citibank, Galaxy, and others on Bitcoin’s bottom price in this round

Author: Wu Says Blockchain

TL;DR：

After hitting an all-time high of around $126k in October 2025, Bitcoin entered a downcycle. On July 1, 2026, BTC briefly fell to around $57.8k, representing a maximum drawdown of about 54% from its all-time high. As of July 14, the price rebounded to around $62k.

As the market moves into the phase of searching for a bottom, institutions including Standard Chartered Bank, Galaxy Research, CryptoQuant, NYDIG, and 10x Research have successively issued their views. However, the nature of these predictions isn’t entirely the same: some institutions provide a benchmark bottom, some only highlight key support levels or bearish scenarios, and others set technical targets after a break below a specific price level.

Based on the publicly available views so far, institutional forecasts are mainly concentrated in two ranges: $50k–$60k and $40k–$46k. KOLs’ judgments are even more dispersed, with the lowest extending to below $30k.

Standard Chartered Bank: $59k could be the bottom of this cycle

On June 12, Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, said Bitcoin may have already formed a cycle bottom around $59k and believes this round of the “crypto winter” is over.

Kendrick attributed the prior market decline to outflows from spot ETF funds, a decline in the buying ability of digital asset treasury companies such as Strategy, and investors shifting funds toward AI-related assets. At the time, Standard Chartered still maintained its target that Bitcoin would reach $100k by the end of 2026.

However, Bitcoin subsequently dropped to around $57.8k on July 1, briefly breaking below Standard Chartered’s $59k bottom. Its forecast is fairly close to the actual low, but it is still not enough to confirm that the market has already completed the final bottom.

10x Research: Further cut from $55k to around $50k

On June 24, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen said Bitcoin could form a low point after falling to $55k. He believes a stronger U.S. dollar, tighter liquidity, and market seasonality could still put pressure on BTC.

On July 1, 10x Research further updated its Elliott Wave model. The firm previously expected Bitcoin to complete the A-wave decline around $63k, then rebound to the $80k–$90k area, and then drop via the C-wave toward around $50k. The latest model puts the potential price range at $46,628–$50,732.

Therefore, 10x Research’s view has been gradually revised downward from the initial $55k toward around $50k. At the same time, the firm also believes that once Bitcoin falls below $55k, the long-term value for allocation will start to show.

CryptoQuant: $53.6k could form a valuation bottom

In a report published in June, CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno noted that Bitcoin had already entered the on-chain valuation range at the time, but demand-side conditions were still weak, and the market had not yet shown a full capitulation signal.

The report shows Bitcoin’s realized price was about $53.6k at the time. Realized price reflects the average cost of all BTC at their last on-chain transfer, and historically it is often seen as an important valuation floor in bear markets.

CryptoQuant also, in combination with indicators such as MVRV Z-Score, considers $55k–$60k as a potential bottoming zone that needs close attention. However, the firm stressed that only if spot demand, ETF fund flows, and stablecoin liquidity improve in sync can the cycle bottom be further confirmed.

Citi: $53k in a bearish scenario

On July 1, Citi lowered its 12-month target price for Bitcoin from $112k to $82k, mainly due to ongoing spot ETF outflows, stalled progress on U.S. crypto legislation, and weaker investor demand.

In a pessimistic scenario of a recession and continued ETF outflows, Citi’s implied Bitcoin valuation is about $53k.

It is worth noting that $53k is not Citi’s explicitly predicted cycle bottom, but a valuation for the 12-month bearish scenario built on assumptions of a recession and continued fund outflows.

NYDIG: $53.7k is a cost line; an extreme drawdown scenario is $37.9k

In a report published on June 5, NYDIG said that Bitcoin was already not far from the historical bear-market bottom zone, but the market evidence was still relatively complex, and it was not yet sufficient to confirm the final bottom.

The report treats the 1x MVRV level around $53.7k as an important cost line. That position implies that Bitcoin’s market price is close to the average on-chain cost of network holders.

NYDIG also calculated that if this round of Bitcoin’s drawdown from the $126k peak is about 70%, the price would fall to around $37.9k. However, this figure is a pressure scenario derived from historical bear-market drawdown magnitudes, not NYDIG’s baseline forecast.

Galaxy Research: Benchmark bottom at $40k–$46k

Galaxy Research provides a relatively clear and lower benchmark prediction among institutions. Its June report suggests Bitcoin could form a cycle bottom in the $40k–$46k area between now and Q4 2026.

Galaxy built a Bitcoin bottom monitoring framework with 13 indicators, covering factors such as price drawdown, holder losses, realized price, miner stress, long-term holder behavior, and market time cycles. As of the report’s release, only 4 indicators had been fully triggered, indicating that although Bitcoin is already in the second half of the bear market, the market may still not have completed clearing in terms of both magnitude of decline and duration.

As a result, Galaxy lists $40k–$46k as the benchmark bottom range, while also warning that if the macro environment or digital asset treasury companies deteriorate further, the market could face deeper tail risks.

Bitfinex: $53.4k is structural support; demand weakness could push price to around $40k

In a June 29 report, Bitfinex Alpha views the realized price of about $53.4k as an important structural support level for Bitcoin.

The report believes that if ETF outflow slows and spot buying returns, Bitcoin could complete bottoming in this area. If demand remains weak, the market may further test the area around $40k in Q4.

On July 1, after Bitcoin fell to around $57.8k, it rebounded quickly. In a subsequent report, Bitfinex said this move may have been a “fake breakdown,” but it was still not enough to confirm that the final bottom had already formed.

22V Research: After breaking below $60k, technical targets may point to $40k

22V Research technical strategist John Roque said Bitcoin is testing $60k, the first downside target. If price effectively breaks below that level, it may further drop to $40k.

Therefore, $40k is a conditional target after breaking a key technical level, not an unconditional bottom call for this cycle by 22V Research.

Other institutions: $31k–$40k is mainly for deep bear-market scenarios

In February, Zacks Investment Research chief equity strategist John Blank said that if this crypto winter lasts 12–18 months, Bitcoin could fall to about $40k in the next 6–8 months. His reasoning is mainly based on technical patterns, declining liquidity, and historical bear-market cycles.

Stifel’s earlier potential target was around $38k; Ned Davis Research believes that if the market enters a full “crypto winter,” Bitcoin could fall to around $31k. These figures are more about long-term bear markets or scenarios involving heavy stress, rather than a unified baseline view among the firms today.

Strategy and Metaplanet: No explicit bottom forecast, but long-term treasury strategy still continues

Strategy and Metaplanet have not provided an explicit Bitcoin bottom price, but their treasury actions are an important variable for institutional views on market demand.

Michael Saylor said that recent Bitcoin ETF flows saw about $4 billion in outflows, reflecting capital rotating into the AI space rather than Bitcoin itself being damaged; in his view, volatility can still create opportunities.

However, Strategy has started to manage its balance sheet more flexibly. Between June 29 and July 5, the company sold 3,588 BTC, raising about $216 million, mainly to pay for preferred share distributions. In the most recent week, the company did not continue buying or selling BTC; instead, it raised about $467 million by selling common stock, increasing its USD reserves to about $3 billion. As of the disclosure, Strategy holds 843,775 BTC.

Metaplanet continues its long-term direction of expanding its BTC reserves, targeting holding 100k BTC by end of 2026 and 210k BTC by end of 2027. The positions of both companies fit better with long-term treasury allocation than with short-term bottom forecasts.

KOL predictions: from $57k down to below $30k

Apart from institutions, on-chain analysts, traders, and industry participants have also offered different views on this cycle’s bottom.

Michael Terpin said in April that Bitcoin has not yet reached the final bottom and expects the price could fall to around $57k around October. The $57.8k low on July 1 is already close to his prediction, but whether it qualifies as the final bottom still needs confirmation.

In June, Bitget CEO Gracy Chen said that $59k is the first support level to watch; if it breaks, the next important area is $48k–$52k. Based on this, Biteye summarizes its bottom view as around $50k.

On-chain analyst Willy Woo said in March, using traditional on-chain models such as CVDD, that the potential bottom range is $46k–$54k. At the time, the CVDD floor was around $45.5k and would rise gradually over time. He also cautioned that these models have only experienced four full bear markets; if the macro environment deteriorates significantly, the actual price could fall even further.

Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Laibite Mining Pool, expects Bitcoin could fall to $42k–$44k in Q4 2026. He based his view on the ratio of Strategy’s market cap to Bitcoin net asset value, combined with the four-year cycle and the characteristic pattern of Bitcoin’s volatility declining step by step each time.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin could fall to around $40k over the next 6 months. He has already hedged downside via an options structure, but he still states that he is a long-term net long on Bitcoin. Therefore, $40k is a medium-term risk view rather than a long-term bearish target.

KOL killer WolfyXBT said he is still waiting for Bitcoin at $35k, representing a more bearish view on this drawdown among some traders.

According to Biteye’s整理, crypto investor Tony Ling expects Bitcoin to enter the $30k–$40k range in Q4 2026, and believes the market could also be affected afterward by the long bear market in Nasdaq and the bursting of an AI bubble. Since he has not found the full original post, this view should be kept with the source limitation of “as整理 by Biteye.”

Technical analyst Tony Severino maintains a long-term target of about $34.5k, which corresponds to about a 72% drawdown from Bitcoin’s historical peak. He expects the cycle low could appear around October.

Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodities strategist Mike McGlone is the most bearish. He believes that if Bitcoin cannot reclaim $75k, the price could still fall to $10k in extreme cases. It needs to be emphasized that this is McGlone’s personal analysis view, not an official institutional forecast by Bloomberg, and it is not part of the current mainstream market expectations.

No unified consensus at $44k–$46k

Taking into account views from all sides, it is still not possible to draw the conclusion that “institutions generally believe this cycle’s bottom is at $44k–$46k.”

Standard Chartered thinks $59k may have already formed the cycle bottom; CryptoQuant, NYDIG, Citi, and 10x Research mainly concentrate their key areas around $50k–$55k; Galaxy Research, Bitfinex, and Arthur Hayes place the deeper risk zone one level lower at $40k–$46k. Forecasts below $30k–$40k are mostly based on assumptions of a deep bear market, a macro recession, or further deterioration in technical structure.

The core of the disagreement in forecasts is not only that the models used by each party differ, but also that their assumptions about the future macro environment differ. Whether spot ETFs can restore inflows, whether treasury companies like Strategy continue to sell BTC, the Fed’s policy and the dollar’s trajectory, and whether investors continue to rotate funds into AI assets could all influence the final bottom.

Therefore, $40k–$46k can be seen as the currently more watched second-layer support area and the benchmark bottom range for some institutions, but it cannot be described as a unified consensus that the market has already formed.