QCP: BTC trades in a narrow range, with rising oil prices pressuring risk assets

Deep Tide TechFlow update: On July 20, according to a market report released by QCP Group, the overall market is currently in a risk-off mode. Driven by an escalation in US-Iran tensions, Brent crude oil has broken above $85 per barrel, hitting a one-month high, with a weekly gain of over 10%. The US stock semiconductor sector is leading declines; the market is concerned that large-scale cloud providers may cut AI infrastructure spending, and capital has rotated into defensive and energy sectors.

In the crypto market, BTC has been consolidating narrowly within the $63,000 to $65,000 range, trading around $64,100. On July 17, it briefly fell to a low of $62,924. ETH continues to underperform BTC, currently at $1,832. After briefly breaking above $1,900, it pulled back; the key resistance level is $1,847. Bulls need to reclaim the 200-day moving average (around $2,400) to improve the overall structure.

Positive signals are emerging on the funding front. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for four straight days, reversing the previously record $8 billion net outflow trend. In the options market, realized volatility has continued to compress; front-end options are relatively cheap in terms of pricing. Ahead of the FOMC meeting on July 28 to 29, market makers have been in a gamma short position. If tensions in the Strait of Hormuz ease, the risk of upside acceleration should not be ignored.