7.20 Monday evening

This round of countering FUD is shrinking in volume and is passive; it all relies on longs taking profit. There’s no incremental capital entering the market, and the bulls lack confidence. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance is crushing expectations of rate cuts; the US dollar and US Treasuries are strengthening. Geopolitical conflicts are pushing up oil prices, while inflation concerns are weighing on crypto.

On the technical side, after the 4-hour rally piercing the moving averages, it quickly pulled back. The candles have returned below the moving averages. In the short term, momentum has shifted from mildly bullish to weakening and consolidating. Although the 1-hour timeframe is oversold and may have a small need for a correction, with no volume in the countering move, it’s likely a trap—don’t blindly try to bottom fish. Around the intraday low near 63,760 there are buy orders showing support, but the strength is weak, and defense is not solid.

Suggestion
For BTC countering: 64,800–65,300 to go long,
Targets: around 63,400–62,900 #GUSD年化升至3.8%