#GUSD年化升至3.8%

Bitcoin 2026.07.20

I. Market overview (spot BTC, current price in the $64,700 range)

1. Intraday & 24-hour trend
Over the past 24 hours, it fell slightly by 0.4%-1.1%. After yesterday’s spike to probe the $65,000 level, it came under pressure and pulled back, with wide intraday consolidation throughout the day. Ethereum also weakened slightly in parallel; altcoins broadly declined, and funds continued to concentrate toward Bitcoin, pushing BTC’s market share up to 69.8%. Spot trading over the past 24 hours was about $16 billion, slightly higher than the prior day, but still far below the 30-day average volume—this is a range-driven, existing-liquidity contest with no incremental funds supporting upside. Wicks/intraday probes occurred frequently, and short-term bulls vs. bears disagreement is intense.
2. Market sentiment & fund settlement
The Fear & Greed Index is 29, staying in the fear zone; investors are mostly watching from the sidelines, with strong risk-off sentiment. Total derivatives liquidations across the whole network over 24 hours were about $148 million; shorts closed positions slightly, longs trimmed slightly—there is no one-sided large-scale liquidation event. RSI is 50.6, sitting in neutral territory with no clear overbought/oversold signal.
3. ETF fund flows
The prior four-day consecutive net inflow trend has slowed; in today’s early session it flipped to small net outflows, with a daily outflow size of about $76 million. Institutional capital is increasingly divided—some funds take profits when prices rise and exit, while only a small number of long-term funds accumulate in batches at lower levels. Near-term bid strength has sharply weakened.

II. Core key price levels

Short-term resistance (from top to bottom)

1. Strong resistance: $65,200-$65,600 (the 90-day moving average + the high point of this rebound; only a volume-backed hold can open up upside repair space)
2. Short-term resistance: $64,900 (multiple times pressure-and-sell zone intraday; today’s first rebound resistance)

Short-term support (from bottom to top)

1. First support: $63,700-$63,900 (the 7-day moving average; the core cost band of this rebound; the line between near-term bulls and bears)
2. Strong support: $62,500-$62,700 (the bottom of the prior consolidation box; if it breaks down effectively, the logic of this rebound fails)

III. Bull/bear driving logic

Bullish supports

1. In June, the US core CPI month-over-month turned negative; inflation cools in stages. The market’s probability for July Fed rate hikes is only 13%; long-term rate-cut expectations have not been fully extinguished, easing liquidity pressure that suppresses crypto assets at the margin.
2. Long-term on-chain holdings remain stable. No concentrated large holders are making massive sell-offs; sufficient bids are absorbing around the $62,500 area, so there’s limited downside momentum.
3. Expectations for US crypto regulatory legislation are still in play. The institutional long-term allocation thesis hasn’t been completely overturned; pullbacks may still be supported by bargain-buy orders.

Today’s key bearish pressure

1. Ongoing escalation of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Brent crude breaks above $90; the market worries energy could push inflation higher again. Global risk appetite broadly rolls over; funds rotate to gold and US Treasuries for safe-haven, and crypto assets face concurrent pressure.
2. Fed officials collectively release hawkish remarks. They clearly state they will not rely on single-month inflation data to judge a policy pivot. Rate-cut expectations continue to be pushed back this year. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rebounds slightly; holding non-interest-bearing crypto assets raises opportunity costs.
3. Spot ETF inflows stall. Institutions realize gains when prices rise. Rebound strength lacks sufficient volume throughout; volume-price divergence appears, and the consistency of the longs is insufficient.
4. US tech stocks weaken across the board. Correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq stays high; weakness in equities drags down crypto market sentiment.

IV. Forecast of走势 by cycle

1. Short term (1-3 days): weak range-bound consolidation; high probability of selling pressure on rallies
Near-term bullish sentiment cools. Price repeatedly tests the $64,900 resistance but cannot break through effectively; the focus shifts gradually downward. Overall it operates within $62,500-$65,000. If it breaks below the $63,700 support, it will further test the $62,500 key support. Only if it holds above $65,200 with volume can the rebound continue.
2. Medium term (1-4 weeks): range-building a bottom; direction awaits confirmation
Easing inflation brings a short-term repair window, but geopolitical conflict and hawkish Fed messaging continue to limit upside space. Only after holding above $65,600 with volume can the rebound trend be confirmed to continue. If it breaks below $62,500, this round of phase rebound is declared over and it returns to a downward channel.
3. Long term (quarterly level): wide-range bottom consolidation
Long-term holders’ positions are firm; on-chain sell-off/exited positions are basically cleared, leaving limited room for a big further drop. However, the high-rate cycle for the Fed is not over, so there is no foundation for an one-way big bull market. In the medium-to-long term, it remains in a wide-range $60,000-$68,000 consolidation pattern.

V. Signals to watch next

1. Macros: whether the Middle East situation keeps escalating and pushing oil prices higher; subsequent Fed officials’ speeches; volatility in the 10-year US Treasury yield; next week’s PPI inflation data.
2. Funds: whether spot ETFs can return to sustained net inflows; derivatives long/short positioning and liquidation size; whether trading volume expands to support the rise.
3. Technology: whether the $63,700 support can hold; whether there can be a volume-backed break above the $64,900 short-term resistance.