The conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate, with Brent breaking $90

In the early hours of July 20, the US military launched a ninth consecutive round of night strikes on Iran. Trump’s stated rationale is to avenge three slain US service members
Brent crude oil has broken above $90. Kuwait’s oil facilities were attacked, and commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have continued to be targeted
I think the logic behind current oil prices is no longer just concern about supply disruptions, but the market is pricing uncertainty over a longer cycle
The fact that there have been nine consecutive night strikes by itself shows the issue: there is no clear exit for this conflict. Both sides are fighting, and neither has any posture to talk
Once the Strait of Hormuz is truly subjected to a large-scale blockade, 20% of the world’s crude oil supply chain would be cut off instantly. $90 is only the starting point, not the endpoint
But gold is more interesting. Geopolitical conflict should, in theory, push gold higher, yet the gold price has fallen back below $4,000. The reason is that the surge in oil prices boosts inflation expectations, and the market starts betting that the Fed may be forced to raise rates again
Once rate-hike expectations build, the dollar strengthens, and gold comes under pressure. Safe-haven logic and monetary policy logic are fighting each other—gold gets caught in the middle
This combination is unfriendly to the crypto market. If oil rises and inflation expectations follow, and if the Fed really turns hawkish, expectations for tighter liquidity will weigh on all risk assets
In the short term, BTC is more likely to track overall risk assets, making an independent trend difficult to emerge in this kind of macro environment
The variables that really need watching are whether the Strait of Hormuz will escalate from attacking merchant ships to an actual blockade, and whether Trump’s next step will bring Iran into a sanctions regime similar to the one against Russia. If either of these happens, it’s a completely different scale of event
All we can do now is wait. This war is at the ninth round and hasn’t ended, which indicates neither side is willing or able to quickly back down
$CL $XAU $BZ
DYOR Not investment advice