32%! There’s only two weeks left for the CLARITY bill

This week could be the most important week in the 2026 crypto market. No exaggeration.

The CLARITY bill passed the House last year with a high vote of 294. Then the Senate Banking Committee cleared it on May 14 by a vote of 15 to 9. After that? It sat in the Senate for a full year.

On Polymarket, the probability that this bill will pass by the end of 2026 has already fallen to 32%.

At the start of the year, this figure was 82%. In five months, it dropped by 50 percentage points.

August 7 summer recess is a hard cutoff. There are only two weeks left for the Senate.

I’m not talking about news. I’m telling you—your position may only have two weeks to live.

Three layers of resistance—each one tightening the neck

First: the ethics provision, locking the whole industry with $1.4 billion.

Trump’s 2025 financial disclosure shows his crypto-related income is about $1.4 billion. This includes $635 million in TRUMP meme coin royalties, and over $500 million in token sales for World Liberty Financial.

The Democrats are pushing for an added clause: banning the president and senior officials from profiting from digital assets. The Republicans removed it.

Both sides are digging in.

Senator Ruben Gallego—one of the only two Democrats who voted in favor in the May committee vote—has already said clearly: without an ethics provision that both parties can accept, he will not support it in the full Senate vote.

Democratic senators Chris Van Hollen, Chris Murphy, and Jeff Merkley have also collectively stated: if the ethics issue isn’t resolved, they oppose the bill.

With only 53 Republican seats in the Senate, the bill needs 60 votes to break through a prolonged debate. That means at least 7 Democrats would have to flip.

Right now, there are only 2 Democratic senators publicly supporting the bill.

We’re still 5 votes short.

Even worse: Senator Lindsey Graham died last weekend, and Mitch McConnell has been absent continuously due to illness. The Republican majority votes are effectively thinner.

Second: bank lobbying—the war over $1.3 trillion in deposits.

The American Bankers Association, the Independent Community Bankers Association, and banking organizations from 76 states jointly pressured the Senate.

What are they afraid of? Interest-bearing stablecoins.

Banks estimate that if the CLARITY bill’s Section 404 isn’t tightened, bank deposits could lose $1.3 trillion, and community bank lending capacity would decline by $850 billion.

Jamie Dimon personally stepped in, saying that interest-bearing stablecoins would create a “shadow banking” crisis.

On one side: Coinbase earns about $1.35 billion per year from USDC reward income. On the other: banks saying, “That money is mine.”

This isn’t a policy debate. It’s two industries fighting over the same piece of meat.

Third: time—the cruelest killer.

The Senate reconvenes on July 13, then recesses on August 7.

The text hasn’t been released yet. The vote hasn’t been scheduled. More than 100 amendments are still piled up there.

The House recesses on July 23. The Senate has only two weeks left.

Two weeks—enough for what? Not enough.

I reduced my altcoin position.

Not because I think the bill is definitely dead. It’s because with a 32% probability, it’s not worth going all in.

Bitcoin doesn’t need this bill—both the SEC and CFTC have already classified it as a commodity, and the ETFs were approved early.

But what about SOL, XRP, ADA, LINK, XLM?

Once the CLARITY bill passes, it will push 16 tokens to “commodity” status. XRP is already down about 40% this year. What if the bill dies?

Without a clear regulatory framework, the SEC will continue “enforcement-style regulation.” Project teams keep living in fear of whether they’ll be sued tomorrow. Institutions won’t touch it. Liquidity keeps drying up.

This isn’t about “dropping a little.” It’s about whether the valuation system has a foundation.

Is there any chance for the bill this year?

To be honest—no chance.

With a 32% probability, tell me how it passes?

The ethics provision can’t be agreed on. The banks are pushing back. Time is down to two weeks. The Republicans don’t have enough votes. The Democrats’ price is too high.

Even Senator Lummis said it himself: if it doesn’t pass before August, the next opportunity might not come until 2030.

This isn’t pessimism. It’s math.

From the House passing it with 294 votes, to the Senate lying around for a year, and then finally dying on a single ethics provision.

A position of $1.4 billion is locking the entire industry’s future.

Expectations fell from 82% to 32%. The market has already priced in “dead”—you just haven’t reacted yet.

Bitcoin doesn’t need CLARITY. But your altcoin positions—each one is waiting for it to save your life.

Don’t bet on a 32% probability. If you do, you’ll be the one in that 32%.

Do you think Trump will publicly disclose his holdings before July 23?

I bet he won’t. And because of that, the bill will also drag on for another four years. #GUSD年化升至3.8% #GateDEX全面接入RobinhoodChain #夏日创作营 $BTC $ETH $SOL