July 20, ETH

Yesterday, the market fluctuated and rose, reaching the target of a higher-range consolidation. Today, there is a need for a pullback.

On the fundamentals, the US-Iran conflict is still ongoing. However, since the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding, it seems the market has grown numb to the subsequent conflict, and it has not produced any fundamental change. They fight while negotiating, and it no longer has any novelty. Therefore, in the near term, with the US and Iran attacking each other and even the US starting to expand the scale of the war, the market is still watching and waiting for the final outcome. On the other hand, recent US data has not been encouraging, and the market believes the probability of a rate hike in July is close to nil. This has provided some relief to prices that were previously pressured and fell. But investment banks believe the probability of a 25 basis-point rate hike in September or October has been priced very high by the market; and by December, this action is considered almost a certainty. Therefore, ETH only temporarily relieves pressure, but remains under pressure in the medium term.

On the technical side, the 4-hour uptrend has not ended yet. After the pullback touched around 1813, where it found strong trend support, the past two days’ rise has been too smooth and slow, and there is an adjustment demand at any time. The main resistance overhead—1900-1924—still remains the key pressure for the medium to long term. On the 1-hour chart, today’s main bull-bear dividing line is 1845; if it breaks below, the market turns bearish. Whether the bulls can continue to push higher depends on a breakout above 1900-1924.

In terms of execution: Strategy 1—if a surge attempt to 1900-1924 fails and the price falls back after topping out, then test a short-term short, stop loss at 1927, target 1851; Strategy 2—short on a 1-hour breakdown below 1845, stop loss at 1867.
For more strategy details, see you in the evening live room.