July 20 Trading Plan:

Yesterday, the market fluctuated and rose, reaching the target of a higher-range consolidation. Today, there is a need for a pullback.

On the fundamentals, the conflict between the US and Iran is still ongoing. However, since the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding, it seems the market has grown numb to the subsequent clashes, which have not brought about fundamental changes. The situation is “fighting while talking,” and it has no longer been novel. Therefore, with the US and Iran continuing to attack each other in the near term—and the US even starting to expand the scale of the war— the market is still watching and waiting for the final outcome. On the other hand, recent US data has not been impressive, leading the market to believe that the probability of a July rate hike is next to nothing, which has slightly eased the previously pressured and falling prices. But investment banks believe the market has priced in a very high probability of a 25-basis-point hike in September or October; as for December, they consider it almost a foregone conclusion. Therefore, ETH only temporarily relieves pressure, but remains under pressure in the medium term.

Technically, the 4-hour uptrend has not ended. After the pullback touched around 1813 and hit a strong trend support, the past two days have risen with too much flatness and mild force, so a correction is needed at any time. The main pressure above, 1900-1924, still remains the key medium-to-long-term resistance. On the hourly chart, today’s main long/short pivot is 1845. If it breaks down, the market turns bearish. Whether the bulls can continue pushing higher depends on breaking above 1900-1924.

In terms of execution: Strategy 1: If the rally fails and forms a high then falls back after hitting 1900-1924, then briefly test a short. Stop loss at 1927. Target 1851; Strategy 2: If the hourly chart breaks below 1845 and goes short, stop loss at 1867, target 181