Gu Jingci: 7.20 Bitcoin/Ethereum Trading Strategy with Market Analysis

Bitcoin/Ethereum has been ranging slightly upward over the weekend, with overall price movement not big. This round of trading started from the bottom around 58,000 BTC and 1,510 ETH, then fluctuated and rose all the way to the highs near 65,500 and around 1,945. After a pullback, it rebounded and pushed higher again, but it did not come with increased volume—instead, it rebounded on shrinking volume. Earlier, the move from the bottom was driven by rising volume; after the pullback, the rebound came with reduced volume, and the volume is seriously insufficient. Going forward, once there is a volume expansion and a rise that breaks through the key range, a sharp surge is likely. The focus should be on the prior high around 65,600; for “Yi-tai” (ETH), just watch 1,920. However, if it falls, it will also fall with volume, and the overall downside room will be much larger. After a reduced-volume rebound at a high level, the probability of further downside is relatively much higher.

What’s interesting is that over the past few days, the external news—including the conflict between the US and Iran, and a series of crude oil headlines—has been all negative. Yet BTC and ETH have not had a decent pullback and sell-off. The reason it rose last week was that last month saw a ceasefire, negotiations, and a sharp crude oil drop, which led to CPI data delivering strong positives. This month’s data, however, will be reflected next month. The main players are clearly “holding back a big move.” This week has only just begun—so be ready to manage trend swings and hold your space.

Trading suggestions: Go short BTC around 64,800 to 65,300; target 62,000 to 63,000. Go short ETH around 1,880 to 1,900; target 1,780 to 1,820. “Zisun” (BTC) 65,800 and 1,930.

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