Bitcoin Weekly Chart Recap: Macro sets the direction, structure sets the tempo

📍 Macro sets the direction (big-picture judgment)
The current macro environment is still bearish:
📌 The Fed is relatively hawkish; real interest rates remain high. Bitcoin, as a zero-yield asset, stays under sustained pressure
📌 The DXY has been ranging around 100.5 without showing clear weakening
📌 Middle East tensions keep flaring up and oil prices stay elevated; inflation is hard to fall back, and the Fed lacks conditions to turn dovish
📌 Global liquidity is tightening at the margin; ETF inflows are slowing, and stablecoin supply shows no obvious expansion
📌 News about Trump’s holdings boosts short-term sentiment, but it’s not sustainable—non-trend-driven
📉 Conclusion: Macro hasn’t turned; the broader direction is still bearish. But a bottom area may be forming.
📍 Technical structure (Elliott Wave)
From 15443 → 126208: a complete five-wave upward move
From 126208 → 57758: large-degree three-wave downward correction, an A-B-C structure
Countable:
Wave A: 126200 → 77000
Wave B: 77000 → 92000 (rebound)
Wave C: 92000 → 57758 (last leg lower, completed)
📌 We’re at the end of Wave C right now, or in the early stage of a new upward push.
The key question is: is 57758 the medium-term bottom?
📍 Key level assessment (watershed points)
📌 Current price: 64867
📌 Resistance levels: 66000-67200 (daily structure watershed)
📌 Support levels: 62000, 60000, 57758
✅ Hold above 66000 (weekly close confirmation) → bottom confirmation; next target 70800
❌ Break below 62000 → still bottom-range consolidation, not the start of a reversal
📍 Cycle theory and time window
From 126208 → 57758, the down cycle is about 3 months, and bottom repair typically takes 1-3 months.
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