Prediction markets are taking over the gaming market: the World Cup accounts for 27% of the total US sports betting volume, growing 3x within one month.

H2 Gambling Capital estimates that in the first month of the World Cup, the forecast market’s trading activity has already accounted for 27% of the total amount of legal sports betting in the United States, up by 3 times from the 9% share at the beginning of the year, showing that trading platforms are snatching market share at an astonishing speed.
(Background: Bernstein: The World Cup will bring $10 billion in trading volume to prediction markets)
(Background addition: North Carolina in the United States was the first to levy a 6% tax on prediction markets)

Table of contents

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• What does 27% mean?
• The World Cup effect: a $10 billion trading-volume window
• From 9% to 27%: who is driving growth?
• What does it mean for other countries?

Prediction markets are consuming traditional market share in U.S. sports gambling at a pace faster than the industry expected. According to the latest estimates from sports betting analytics firm H2 Gambling Capital, during the World Cup’s first month in 2026, prediction markets’ activity has already captured 27% of all legal sports betting volume in the United States. For comparison, at the start of this year, that figure was only 9%.

In other words, in just a few months of the event window, prediction markets’ share in sports betting has surged from less than one tenth to more than a quarter. Even industry analysts are surprised by this growth rate.

What does 27% mean?

The U.S. sports betting market reached total wagered amounts of about $34 billion in 2025, making it one of the most mature betting markets outside the World Cup. With prediction markets rising from 9% to 27%, it means that every four dollars, one dollar flows to trading platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, rather than traditional sportsbooks.

The reasons behind this aren’t hard to understand. The trading mechanics of prediction markets are fundamentally different from traditional gambling: you can bet on both “yes” and “no” simultaneously, enter and exit anytime, with transparent prices that can be combined into strategy portfolios. For users accustomed to crypto trading, this experience is almost seamless.

However, H2 Gambling Capital also notes that the way “activity” is calculated for prediction markets and for bookmakers is not exactly the same. Combined with the fact that sports betting operators have not yet released the latest internal data, the 27% figure should be treated as an approximation rather than a precise statistic. Even so, the growth trend itself is already attention-grabbing enough.

The World Cup effect: a $10 billion trading-volume window

The explosive growth of prediction markets during the World Cup isn’t accidental. As early as this June, Bernstein released a report stating that the World Cup would bring trading volume on the order of $10 billion to prediction markets, and named Kalshi, Polymarket, and Sportify as the three major winners.

The report predicts that, on average, about 1,200 matches will be held per day during the World Cup, and each match corresponds to multiple tradable event contracts (win/lose, goals, score, etc.). Assuming an average of 5 contracts generated per match, over the entire tournament it could create about 6,000 distinct tradable targets, far exceeding the number of betting lines that traditional bookmakers provide.

The Taiwan market shows a similar trend. While Taiwan’s local prediction market has not yet formed a large scale, the penetration rate of crypto trading platforms is among the top in Asia. According to statistics from Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs, in 2025 Taiwan’s digital asset trading volume surpassed NT$50 billion, with sports event betting accounting for about 15%.

From 9% to 27%: who is driving growth?

This growth is mainly driven by two platforms: Kalshi’s U.S.-style sports contracts (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), and Polymarket’s focus on the World Cup and football events. Based on quick-news search results, Polymarket has recently been particularly active in CLARITY Act predictions, indicating the platform is expanding from sports events into political forecasting.

It’s worth noting that the expansion of prediction markets is also accompanied by regulatory competition. In July this year, North Carolina became the first to impose a 6% tax rate on prediction markets, effectively acknowledging federal commodity traders’ trading rights. This is a first in North America, and other states are expected to follow soon.

What does it mean for other countries?

The rapid rise of U.S. prediction markets holds at least two takeaways for investors: first, the competitive landscape of sports betting is shifting from “traditional casinos vs. online platforms” to “prediction markets vs. everyone”; second, the trading model of event contracts is naturally well-suited to crypto-native users.

If Taiwan opens up sports betting in the future, the prediction market mechanism will very likely become one of the preferred options, because it doesn’t require a physical casino and doesn’t require complex odds calculations—only an on-chain or off-chain trading engine. For Taiwan, which has strong digital infrastructure, this is a very low-cost entry point.

In the short term, H2’s data reminds us that prediction markets are no longer just a niche toy within the crypto circle, but are actually changing the allocation of global sports betting shares. If this trend continues beyond the end of the World Cup, the 27% figure is likely only the starting point.