It’s been 11 days since I paused daily market analysis on X.

So did anything breaking geopolitical/macro/stocks/crypto-vise happened so far?
Well…
To be honest.
Not really.
Except gas prices went parabolic.
• Crude Oil (eg. Brent/WTI) +10.5%
While China & Crypto take advantage of never-ending Hormuz workaround.
• 🇨🇳 🇭🇰 Hang Seng +2.75%
• $BTC 63K→65K; $ETH 1.75K→1.85K
Unlike the rest of the world, especially tech, thus Japan got hit the hardest.
• 🇺🇸 S&P/Dow -0.3%, Nasdaq -2.1%
• 🇪🇺 Stoxx -0.2%, 🇯🇵 Nikkei -3.9%
Turns out the real story behind that is a full escalation timeline that kicked off hard around July 10.
Here’s the quick & dirty:
• US Central Command wraps BDA on 170+ strikes → Iranian coastal radar & anti-ship missile silos get smashed
• New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei (post-burial of his father) issues first orders from a bunker: IRGC to prep asymmetric retaliation
• Lloyd’s war-risk insurance for Hormuz tankers → $450k per transit (smaller fleets basically said “we’re out”)
• Israel expands its “Forward Defence” zone deeper into southern Lebanon, ignoring the protests
• Trump officially reinstates full US naval blockade on all Iranian ports → chokes what’s left of their fuel exports
• Rome peace talks between Israel & Lebanon collapse before they even start (Beirut boycotts over occupation)
• Iran launches synchronized missile + drone wave at US hubs in Bahrain, Qatar & Oman
• Then escalates to civilian infrastructure: hits Kuwait desalination plants (twice in 48 hrs)
• Iranian missile gets through and hits Jordan base → 2 US soldiers killed, 4 wounded
• US responds overnight with big strikes on Darkhovin nuclear construction site (IAEA confirms early-stage, no active radiological material, so no disaster)
Hormuz transits drop ~75%.
The little traffic still moving is almost all northern corridor, dominated by heavily armed Iranian & Chinese-linked vessels.
It all turned into mainland attrition + hitting allied critical infrastructure (water, energy security).
Diplomacy is basically on life support.
Will earnings drop reverse charts next week?