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The US and Iran have fallen into a “no war, no peace” stalemate, with both sides believing that the situation is in their favor.

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ME News: On April 26 (UTC+8), the temporary suspension of the U.S.-Iran peace negotiations has left both sides in a delicate “neither war nor peace” situation. Both Iran and the United States are confident they can endure under military and economic pressure: Iran believes it can withstand the economic shock caused by war, while the Trump administration believes Iran can be weakened through measures such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Although there is currently a ceasefire, the lack of a permanent agreement keeps the situation unstable. Iranian former officials and conservative media say the current situation is like a continuation of last June’s short-term conflict between Iran and the U.S., with no guarantee of peace. While both sides avoid the costs of a full-scale war, they continue to rely on threats of force, which may be more risky than a short-term conflict. Ceasefire talks brokered by Pakistan are progressing slowly; the global economy—especially oil supply—faces pressure, and the ongoing stalemate creates uncertainty for stability in the Middle East. According to monitoring by PolyBeats, on the Polymarket platform, the probability of permanent peace between the U.S. and Iran was only 2%, while the probabilities of “war ending” and “war continuing” were 32% and 48%, respectively. (Source: MLion)
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