#夏日创作营 Oil prices surged 16% in a week—what is the fundamental difference between this rebound and past geopolitical “pulse” moves?

The key difference this time is that the rebound is not a short-lived, single-event pulse. Instead, it is a composite supply crisis formed by the complete breakdown of the ceasefire arrangement, the continuous expansion of both sides’ strike targets, and a dual threat facing shipping lanes. Transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz have been steadily shrinking, while the potential Red Sea blockade threat further expands the risk scope to alternative routes. This pattern of “the main corridor is obstructed and the backup corridor is also not stable” has shifted the market’s pricing of supply disruptions from short-term panic to mid-term concern. Meanwhile, after oil prices fell from $119 to $70, they are technically in an oversold area, and the momentum from short-covering has added extra lift to the rebound. Speculators’ net longs only increased by 4,379 lots—so why does what looks like a modest increase in positioning support such a sharp rally? Changes in net long positions reflect data up to July 14, and this Friday’s surge may not yet be fully reflected.
More importantly, this dataset misses part of the NYMEX financial crude oil futures contracts, so the actual net long size may be larger than the book figure. In addition, during periods of weak prices, overall speculative long positioning itself is low; sharp upside moves are often driven more by short covering than by large-scale inflows of fresh longs. A relatively mild change in positioning could instead suggest that the market is not yet overly crowded. If the geopolitical situation continues to deteriorate, there may still be room for additional long buildup. Has Saudi Arabia’s rerouting of exports to Yanbu Port fully offset the risk from Hormuz? Yanbu Port’s expansion and rerouting have indeed significantly improved the resilience of Saudi exports, but that does does not mean the risks have been fully hedged. A scale of 4 million barrels per day is approaching more than 70% of Saudi’s normal export volume, meaning the strategic importance of Yanbu Port itself has risen to an unprecedented level. Once the Red Sea route faces real threats due to the actions of the Houthis, the fragility of this alternative path will be exposed instantly. The capacity of the East-West oil pipelines is also not infinite—if both corridors are constrained at the same time, Saudi exports will face severe challenges.
The current setup is exchanging reliance on one strait’s risk for reliance on another strait. As Brent approaches the upper band of the Bollinger Bands at 88.54, how much upside room remains? The upper Bollinger Band is a dynamic technical pressure level, not an absolute resistance. Driven by news, there is a possibility of a brief penetration above the upper band. What needs to be watched, however, is whether there will be a material supply disruption afterward—rather than threats that remain only at the verbal level. Whether Brent can break above the upper band effectively and hold it depends on whether real supply interruptions emerge subsequently.
Why did the market react calmly to the Ukrainian attack on Russian refineries? This incident has not happened for the first time, and the market has already developed a degree of “aesthetic fatigue” from encounters involving energy facilities tied to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Compared with the Hormuz and Red Sea threats in the Middle East, this attack targeted refineries rather than crude oil export facilities, so its direct impact on global crude supply is limited. But if the frequency and intensity of such attacks continue to rise and begin to spill over into other export-related infrastructure, the marginal impact will not be negligible. At present, market attention is highly focused on how the conflict between the U.S. and Iran evolves, and other geopolitical variables are temporarily secondary.