Changxin’s IPO performance outlook: aiming to match Hynix with an opportunity of up to 3 trillion yuan; an AI upcycle could create an optimistic scenario of 5 trillion yuan

ME News message, July 19 (UTC+8): China’s homegrown storage-chip leader ChangXin Technology (ChangXin Storage/CXMT) plans to be officially listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s STAR Market on July 27, 2026. Its initial market capitalization is about 580 billion yuan. ChangXin is expected to target becoming the world’s No. 3 DRAM supplier. The following is an overview of forecasts regarding its market-cap performance after listing:

UBS’s latest research report believes that the DRAM industry will face supply exceeding demand imbalance and that it will remain tight at least until the second quarter of 2028. This sustained high-visibility outlook provides key support for market expectations that ChangXin Technology could achieve valuations at the trillion-yuan level or even higher.

Zhang Xiaorong, the head of the Institute of Deep Technology Research, said that assuming ChangXin’s net profit this year is around the trillion-yuan level, a reasonable PE is 20—25 times, and with the added momentum of the industry uptrend, after the listing it is highly likely to be able to push toward a trillion-yuan-level market capitalization.

CNBC technology analyst Daniel Haylor’s view: ChangXin Technology is in a favorable position, especially benefiting from the massive shortage in the mobile memory market. The world’s three largest storage giants are shifting a large amount of capacity toward the higher-profit HBM sector, which will further squeeze the supply of general-purpose DRAM. As China’s DRAM leader, ChangXin is expected to achieve significant growth and a valuation re-rating in this structural opportunity.

Senior investment banking professional Wang Jiyue predicts that after ChangXin Technology’s listing, its valuation is expected to reach 2 trillion yuan—3 trillion yuan. Compared with Hynix, the latest trailing-twelve-month (TTM) P/E ratios of Samsung Electronics and Hynix are 21.7 times and 21.3 times, respectively.

A research report from CITIC Securities expects that the storage supply-demand imbalance will persist at least until 2027, with price increases running throughout all of 2026. With the industry-cycle logic strengthened, it reinforces institutions’ optimistic judgments about ChangXin Technology’s post-listing valuation of 2 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan.

Reuters’ view: it expects its market capitalization is very likely to exceed 3 trillion yuan RMB (about $44.30 billion). Driven by the AI upcycle and the push for technological self-reliance, it could even reach 5 trillion yuan.

Multiple China-based brokerages unanimously predict that after ChangXin Technology’s listing, its market capitalization is expected to surge to 2 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan. Core support includes long-term DRAM/HBM demand for AI computing power, the company’s attribute as China’s only DRAM production platform, support from the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, and the logic of domestic substitution. Some calculations show that the reasonable opening range is 2 trillion yuan—2.5 trillion yuan.

An analyst at the Financial Times expects that ChangXin Technology’s valuation could soar to as high as 3 trillion yuan RMB. The main beneficiaries are the AI-led demand boom for memory chips and the company’s rapid expansion of its share in the global DRAM market, along with international analysts’ optimistic assessments of the company’s growth story and structural opportunities.

Some optimistic institutions and some brokerage industry electronics analysts believe that under high industry momentum and the A-share semiconductor scarcity premium, ChangXin Technology’s market-cap peak could break above 3 trillion yuan in a certain phase and even reach 4 trillion yuan. Under extreme scenarios, it could be even higher. This view is based on expectations for high net profits in 2026 and the growth-stock valuation logic of benchmarking international industry leaders.

(Source: BlockBeats)