This is the third time I’ve seen positions still stubbornly holding on near the liquidation line.

A friend of mine on Aave borrowed USDC, then deposited it into ETH. It’s only three steps away from the liquidation red line, yet they’re still betting that this pullback will get pulled back. I ran the numbers: if you don’t add margin, don’t reduce the position, and just wait for the rebound, the win rate—before the funding rate and OI have dropped—comes out to only around 30%. Honestly, instead of gambling on that small probability, it’s better to actively cut half or add a bit more collateral, so you don’t end up getting liquidated with a single click and still have to pay a penalty.

Lately, hardware wallets have been constantly out of stock, and phishing links are also surging. In the group chat, several people posted private key screenshots by mistake to the wrong person. Anyway, I’ve revoked any permissions that needed revoking—don’t wait until the liquidation line is reached, only to have the funds stolen too. That would be truly empty on both sides.

Discipline is what shows most clearly when you’re three steps away from the red line—who moves first has the better odds.