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Deep Dive Bitcoin Analysis - Sunday Update $BTC

We're still range-bound around $64k and my overall high-timeframe view hasn't drastically changed. However, months of simple range trading are slowly but surely creating subtle shifts in market structure which demand an adjustment to my strategy.

The Original Strategy (What Was Working)

For most of this range-bound period, my playbook was incredibly simple and effective:

Accumulate spot near the major support at $60k-$54k

Distribute / Take profits at the major resistance at $69k-$72k

This approach generated several profitable rotations, allowing for buying low and selling high as the range played out beautifully. That is, until now.

Why I'm Changing My Approach

My primary concern currently is the weakening support. Each visit to the $60k-$54k support zone has been met with diminishing enthusiasm. We're seeing quicker sell-offs within this support and weaker bounces from this area. This suggests the existing support structure is losing its effectiveness.

Consequently, I'm not looking to buy spot aggressively at current levels or on minor relief rallies. Instead, I'm focusing on deeper discounts. My next significant spot accumulation zone will commence below $54k, with notable interest in the following price points:

$54k-$53k

$52k

$50k, and potentially lower

This is where I'll be looking to accumulate a considerably larger spot position for the long-term.

My Current Position & Risk Management

Shorts: My existing short positions are still active and will remain open as I maintain a bearish high-timeframe bias.

Resistance Selling: I have buy limit orders placed to add more short positions should we see another rally into the $69k-$72k resistance area. If price travels into this zone, I will increase my short exposure.

Exit Plan: I will not be closing my core short positions unless Bitcoin can clearly break and hold price above $50k. That's my primary downside target unless we witness a significant shift in market structure (e.g. Strong reclaim of $72k+ with conviction).

Reflecting on Past Calls

To provide context, I've been vocal about my bearish stance for some time:

I warned about a major top in the $118k-$122k range

I added to my shorts near $97k

I added again around $82k

When $72k didn't act as the strong support I had anticipated, and broke with more ease than expected, I didn't get stubborn. Price told me something different, and I adapted. There's no room for ego in this market.

The Bigger Picture

In my opinion, we are still in a bear market, and the final capitulation low has yet to occur. I expect another significant (and likely emotional) downswing before the conditions are ripe for a sustained bull market.

While this range may be seen as a distribution or accumulation zone, the momentum still points lower on the higher timeframes. Until we observe higher highs and higher lows on weekly or monthly charts, I'll remain defensively positioned.

This is my personal analysis based on technical structure, price action and experience. It is not financial advice. Markets can be extremely volatile, and I encourage you to conduct your own research and manage your risk accordingly.

What are your thoughts on these levels? Let me know in the comments below!

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‍@Gate_Square$BTC